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One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Sunday, September 25, 2005 -- Subscribe free

Recapping how they EXEL

Just got a comment from a reader, " Did you hear the EXEL CC call by Bank of America? quite an impressive presentation" -- I did hear the call, and I agree. Thought I would call it to all of your attention.

Exelixis is still quite early in the process of becoming a big company, and I've written about them before, but anyone who's interested would do well to check out the webcast from the BOA conference (link here) . It's reassuring the hear a confident, mature CEO talk when you're invested in a company that is still quite a ways from becoming profitable.

The key takeaway? In my opinion, it's this [shortened] quote from CEO George Scangas, "Our goal is really to become a top-five biotech company ... we don't make this statement lightly ... I believe we have a legitimate chance to meet that goal" And they've designed the company for that long term goal, this is not a pie-in-the-sky hope.

And the other key takeaway, no kidding, is "this is a bit of a small group, so I'll take questions during the presentation" -- translation: No one loves EXEL yet, so we do not yet have to pay for the hype if we want in. Looks like the next potential chance for EXEL to get a lot of attention from the market will be when they release data from three early stage trials in early November.

EXEL is doing it the right way, conservative management of a very large (especially for such a small company) pipeline of drugs that is organically growing at a steady clip.

This mature but still small company is not betting the farm on a blockbuster drug, though they may come up with one someday -- they're also going after known targets with novel approaches or techniques in their compounds, and they're going after big diseases, with a primary focus on cancer. You can hear about some of them in the conference call, but, for example, one of their promising cancer drugs, XL999 , targets the same basic mechanism as Genentech and Protein Design Labs' Avastin (which, recent news notwithstanding, has proven itself as a spectacular drug for at least some cancers) even as it tries to improve upon that drug. Potential blockbusters that break new ground with higher risk make up part of the pipeline, and compounds that follow established targets or strategies and have lower risk of failure make up the rest -- that's a smart way to manage a pipeline, in my wholly uninformed opinion.

Exelixis is also not taking the other popular path of the small biotech company, betting on becoming a lucrative takeover target so the big boys will bail them out. Instead they're partnering compounds and coming up with smart and innovative financing to lessen their risk, and they're trying to develop and bring to market themselves and in coordination with their partners a large number of effective drugs. This is a company that believes it has a good future on their own, and I agree.

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http://www.ibb.ubs.com/Conferences/co_highlights.shtml

VRTX Conference at UBS;

VX-680 Spectaular results in animals.

VX-950 "information" will be released next week.
 
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