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One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005 -- Subscribe free

News from the FORM

I've been holding my Formfactor shares for a while now, and hope to be able to hold them for the very long term. I was very interested to see what they would say this quarter, and see what kind of update we would get on their new facility.

Well, I'm sitting here waiting for the conference call to begin, and I see that Formfactor (FORM -- get free real time quote from ADVFN) is trading down a bit after hours today. That's probably a "sell on the news" reaction to the quick runup before earnings, which I was a little surprised by after Intel's numbers yesterday. Logical or no, I figured that the market's ambivalence toward Intel would percolate down through the rest of the industry.

But the numbers look good to me at first blush. FORM has a pretty big stable of analysts on board now, and if you ignore their one time 8-cent tax windfall this quarter they hit the high analysts's earnings number -- not bad, and technically a "beat" of the street!

Their margins look solid ... forward bookings look great ... expenses were pretty high this quarter due to the new facility.

But what about that new facility? Not much of a real update in their press release, so I'll come back and flesh this post out with more info after the call. Their forward statements about the new facility and their new bookings are the key for the stock price's performance in the remainder of this year.

Even with some inroads made by their competition, FORM is still leading this part of the industry -- I expect growth will remain very good, though margins might be hampered if their competitors really succeed, which is always an open question. One nice thing is their patent win in Korea, which certainly helps -- we will see how that plays out long term and, especially, how it plays in the Japanese patent courts ... but I'm encouraged.

So what do you have to say, FORM -- how's that new factory coming?

Call has just started -- will update with more once I've listened and pondered.

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