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One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Monday, February 06, 2006 -- Subscribe free

Super IMAX?

Noticed that Imax (IMAX -- click to register for free RT streaming quote)got a couple plugs during the Super Bowl last night.

I don't expect this will have any dramatic impact on the share price over the next few weeks, but it was nice to see the trailers for V for Vendetta and Poseidon and see IMAX specifically noted ("coming March 17th to theaters and Imax") -- these films are expected blockbusters, and they will be simultaneously released on IMAX and in the multiplexes, which I think ought to drive some significantly higher IMAX ticket sales.

Though Imax has floundered along for many, many years as a venue for documentaries and spectacular experiential films in museums and science centers, the fate of the company and the stock has been wagered on the Hollywood blockbuster. With Warner Brothers hits like Harry Potter, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Batman Begins bringing in the crowds to Imax in 2005, the orders for IMAX equipment continued to grow and deals were signed with commercial theaters around the world.

There's a big risk here as well, of course -- Imax will only show a half-dozen Hollywood films in a year (and so far, it looks like they'll show only Warner Bros films), and if they get a few flops their reputation will suffer, which could lessen the enthusiasm among exhibitors for retrofitting their theaters, at great expense, to show Imax films. I don't think that's all that likely however -- the Imax experience is different enough to make a mediocre action film thrilling, and even a blah animated film that disappointed in regular theaters into an Imax hit (Polar Express).

As I said in my Annual Checkup, I consider this to be a speculative investment and I'm not itching to buy more immediately ... but if Imax dips down over the next few weeks before V for Vendetta releases in mid-March, I might have to consider buying more. The movie looks bizarre, but I imagine all the Matrix junkies out there will be lined up to give Imax a try.

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