World's Worst Market Timer (OSTK)
Well, I'm still comfortable with my decision to sell Overstock.com (OSTK -- click to register for free RT streaming quote) in the abstract, but I'm definitely beating myself up over the timing.
I had plenty of patience to watch it ride down and down and down as I pondered whether or not I thought the company could recover and the CEO could refocus on the business. After all that pondering, it finally became apparent to me that the company wasn't one that I wanted to continue owning and I sold my shares last week.
Immediately after I sold, the stock launched one of the more remarkable two-day rallies I've yet seen from a company that hasn't released any earnings or news of any sort. I'm not sure what caused it -- Overstock thumbed their noses at Gradient again last week, but that was before I sold. And TheStreet.com posted an article about how undervalued OSTK is, but it doesn't make sense that this one article would change everyone's minds just by comparing OSTK's valuation to Amazon's. There wasn't any data in that article that wasn't already available to everyone.
So I definitely don't understand it. If I had been a couple days more patient in making my sell decision I would have gotten a price about 25% better than the one I sold at on Friday. Arg.
Long term, I still think Overstock is a great concept that's not being well executed, and a solid business that has some huge competitors who I expect will bear down further on OSTK as it continues to grow. I wish the Byrne's and their company well in my absence, and I'm happy to be out of the company, but boy does my timing ever stink.
I had plenty of patience to watch it ride down and down and down as I pondered whether or not I thought the company could recover and the CEO could refocus on the business. After all that pondering, it finally became apparent to me that the company wasn't one that I wanted to continue owning and I sold my shares last week.
Immediately after I sold, the stock launched one of the more remarkable two-day rallies I've yet seen from a company that hasn't released any earnings or news of any sort. I'm not sure what caused it -- Overstock thumbed their noses at Gradient again last week, but that was before I sold. And TheStreet.com posted an article about how undervalued OSTK is, but it doesn't make sense that this one article would change everyone's minds just by comparing OSTK's valuation to Amazon's. There wasn't any data in that article that wasn't already available to everyone.
So I definitely don't understand it. If I had been a couple days more patient in making my sell decision I would have gotten a price about 25% better than the one I sold at on Friday. Arg.
Long term, I still think Overstock is a great concept that's not being well executed, and a solid business that has some huge competitors who I expect will bear down further on OSTK as it continues to grow. I wish the Byrne's and their company well in my absence, and I'm happy to be out of the company, but boy does my timing ever stink.
This article posted by One Guy @ 3/14/2006 03:00:00 PM 3 comments
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