I could have made you rich! (GOOG)
Really, all you need to do is look at my short-term decisions, then use as much margin as they'll give you to bet heavily the other way.
That's halfway a joke, of course. I've done fine over the past few years in beating the market handily thanks partly to some good dumb luck, and I don't usually get filled with regret when I make decisions that the market turns against for a short period of time.
But again, with Google earnings out today ... I could have made you some money.
All you had to do was notice when I sold about 30% of my Google holdings to diversify a couple weeks ago when it was just under $400.
And then, being a good contrarian, you would have made a huge bet on Google.
Today, you'd be up by more than 10% as Google released great, analyst-beating earnings once again.
And really, you'd have to figure the odds were in their favor. Google doesn't seem to care what analysts think, but they have clobbered the analyst estimates every time excepting one, it just so happens that that one was last quarter. And now they've more than made up for it.
As I type this and watch the after hours action, Google is trading at about $440.
This is an interesting experience in investor psychology for me, because I hemmed and hawed about selling part of my GOOG holdings for a long time (it was by far my largest holding) before finally selling a portion a few weeks after I passed the one-year holding period. And I still hold the vast majority of my GOOG holdings that I picked up at an average price of around $195, so this blowout earnings report from Google is really great news for me.
But I'm mostly I'm just mad that I did my diversifying a little too early. I've said this before, but sometimes being wrong is infuriating, even when you're making money.
So as I said, I'm a great contrarian indicator sometimes ... I have full confidence that most of the companies I invest in will go up in the many years that I intend to hold them. But I'm getting almost as confident that they'll drop in the few weeks after I buy them (or shoot up in the weeks after I sell).
That's halfway a joke, of course. I've done fine over the past few years in beating the market handily thanks partly to some good dumb luck, and I don't usually get filled with regret when I make decisions that the market turns against for a short period of time.
But again, with Google earnings out today ... I could have made you some money.
All you had to do was notice when I sold about 30% of my Google holdings to diversify a couple weeks ago when it was just under $400.
And then, being a good contrarian, you would have made a huge bet on Google.
Today, you'd be up by more than 10% as Google released great, analyst-beating earnings once again.
And really, you'd have to figure the odds were in their favor. Google doesn't seem to care what analysts think, but they have clobbered the analyst estimates every time excepting one, it just so happens that that one was last quarter. And now they've more than made up for it.
As I type this and watch the after hours action, Google is trading at about $440.
This is an interesting experience in investor psychology for me, because I hemmed and hawed about selling part of my GOOG holdings for a long time (it was by far my largest holding) before finally selling a portion a few weeks after I passed the one-year holding period. And I still hold the vast majority of my GOOG holdings that I picked up at an average price of around $195, so this blowout earnings report from Google is really great news for me.
But I'm mostly I'm just mad that I did my diversifying a little too early. I've said this before, but sometimes being wrong is infuriating, even when you're making money.
So as I said, I'm a great contrarian indicator sometimes ... I have full confidence that most of the companies I invest in will go up in the many years that I intend to hold them. But I'm getting almost as confident that they'll drop in the few weeks after I buy them (or shoot up in the weeks after I sell).
This article posted by One Guy @ 4/20/2006 04:45:00 PM 0 comments
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