One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006 -- Subscribe free

Selling some Imax (IMAX)

Everyone knows what's wrong with IMAX today -- they offered the company up for sale, they didn't get a buyer at the price they wanted ($12-14), their accounting is in some dispute with the SEC, and, as a result of those first two, the class action lawyers are circling like sharks.

Which just goes to show you how bad a company can perform even when their business is on track and their profits are growing. And why I'm selling some shares today as part of my overall margin reduction initiative.

I don't like selling IMAX -- I'm still holding the shares that I purchased for a retirement account at $6.20 following the disappointing no-buyout news. I thought those shares were a bargain then, and I still think that's well below a fair price for the company.

But given the confusion about their accounting and the risk that their accounting problem will actually develop into something signficant (at this point, it's just a question of recognizing revenue during construction of their theaters, which is a timing issue that I don't much care about), I can't justify borrowing money to hold the shares in my margin account any longer. The fact that the CFO resigned adds a little more urgency to the situation, and may explain why the shares remain in freefall, but I think it's as likely that he was a sacrificial lamb or that he made a simple mistake as that there was any real chicanery going on.

So I'm selling a bit less than half of my overall IMAX holdings, and clearing out all of the shares that I held on margin. This sale brings a loss, of course, so at least it will help me to write off some of the profits I'm taking in other positions.

The Imax shares I'm selling today were purchased at an average price of $7.30, and sold this morning at $4.99 for more than a 30% loss.

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Comments:
I personally feel IMAX is much closer to a buy here than a sell. Then again, I'm quite biased, as I have bought at 5.55 5.90 and today at 4.90.

Seems completely oversold to me.
 
You could very well be right -- but as we can see from this morning's action, the selling in Imax may be overdone ... but that doesn't mean it's stopping. I do feel that Imax will recover to double digit range, but that's a feeling -- I'm not certain that these accounting problems and lawsuits are really as specious as they seem to be, or at least, not certain enough to continue risking borrowed money.
 
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