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One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Friday, January 06, 2006 -- Subscribe free

Looking for a lumbering beast

You've probably noticed that my portfolio is overwhelmingly small and mid-cap companies, with a few exceptions like Google. I'm looking to diversify a little bit with a purchase of a single large, steady (but with growth potential) company that pays a significant dividend to help keep a lid on some of the wild volatility.

I haven't looked into any of my candidates in too much detail, but this kind of company has been all the rage among stock pickers and portfolio managers in the media lately -- everyone seems to think large cap growth is finally going to be back this year, though at the rate most of the companies they talk about are growing it might be as fair to move them over into the value camp.

But there are a few companies that I find interesting and will be looking into when I can (and I still have to finish my annual checkup of all my existing holdings, too). My five thoughts on this so far are:

A few massive international banks that have great international growth and great fee income:
Citibank (C) -- good international business, and it looks like they'll be the first westerners to buy controlling interest in a Chinese bank.
UBS (UBS) -- great private banking business to go along with all the other financial businesses they have, and excellent exposure to asia as well.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)

A couple industrial conglomerates that have some growth potential and are in great businesses and pay good dividends:
3M (MMM) -- this is the baby of the bunch, but has shown steady growth from the beginning of time.
GE (GE) -- so huge that I wonder how much more they can grow, but a good and growing dividend and everyone genuflects to their management.

I think all of these companies are effectively managed, have significant growth prospects and growing dividends, and should have limited downside, but I haven't gotten excited enough about any of them to buy in. If you've got any thoughts on any of these or similar companies, give a holler.

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Annual Checkup -- FORM

There hasn't been much to say about Formfactor (FORM -- free RT quote) in the last couple of months since their earnings release and conference call. The price hasn't changed much since then, either, except for a little blip when Jim Cramer featured Formfactor on Mad Money as a play on Korea. (Which I still don't get, by the way -- their key new manufacturing plant and headquarters are both in California, though some of their customers are Korean. If you want Korea, buy EWY, Samsung, Hyundai, Kookmin Bank or Posco, as far as I'm concerned). I don't plan on buying or selling any additional FORM shares early this year, but I will be watching their next couple of months quite closely -- the first quarter is when they're supposed to have their new facility fully online, and that will be the key to increasing margins (new faciity is more efficient) as well as bringing an end to this year or two of capped sales as they have been constrained from increasing production. After their last call, I was very optimistic about the progress in bringing the new fab online, but as we have seen with this company over the past year there's always potential for bad things to happen to this snakebit transition to the new factory. FORM should continue to prosper and hit new levels of growth in the coming year as more and more semiconductor manufacturers produce broader product lines on tighter schedules and at lower prices, all of which demand the highest quality in-line semi test equipment available. No one has better technology than Formfactor, and no one else can supply this type of testing equipment for virtually all types of semiconductors as FORM can. Barring huge problems with their new plant, or unexpected patent problems, FORM should be able to leverage the huge upswing in semiconductor manufacturing and continue to increase earnings.

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Thursday, January 05, 2006 -- Subscribe free

This is ridiculous -- bought more GOL

OK, now I understand that the Brazilian Bovespa is very volatile ... and I know that Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL -- free RT quote) has been on a tear over the past year ... but please, this is ridiculous -- traffic is climbing, guidance goes up, and the stock goes down?

GOL today released revised guidance for next year, guidance which has them earning between $1.71 and $1.89 a share at the current exchange rate. That means if they hit the top end of the range they're trading at a forward PE of about 14. And so far, their guidance has proven to be quite conservative for the most part -- and they have recently been blowing through analyst estimates with ease.

A forward PE of 14 for a company growing at this pace? That, I like. I know it's a bit high for an airline, and a bit high for a Brazilian stock ... but GOL is a special case in it's growth potential, cost containment, and margins.

And yet, the stock goes down today, whch is why I was finally inspired to buy a little more. I didn't jump on it quickly enough when they had a nice downgrade a few days ago and the price bumped lower temporarily, and perhaps because I'm kicking myself for missing that I've bought more today on this smaller dip.

I have written way too much about GOL lately (notes here, here and here, for a taste), but I find myself captivated by the story ... so perhaps I'm being too emotional about this one and buying my second position too early, but I don't think so.

To reiterate:

Most profitable (on operating margins) airline in the world (at least that I know of).

Serving a growing and increasingly mobile population in the largest country in South America.

Gradually expanding at low cost into other markets with short international flights.

Franchising their model to Mexico in a partnership agreement at relatively low cost.

Huge insider ownership by founding family that has a strong focus on operating performance and growth and a strong understanding of the Brazilian customer.

Resides in a country with strong price controls on oil and is not nearly as subject to fuel price spikes as US or large international airlines.

And great disclosure of operating performance and finances.

So I bought more today -- picked up another small bite of GOL at $27.50. Hope I wasn't too hasty, but I think I'll be happy with this holding for many years.

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Wednesday, January 04, 2006 -- Subscribe free

Portfolio Update -- Jan 4, 2006

Open positions -- prices midday January 4, 2006.


Symbol

Trade Date (most recent)

Paid (average for position)

Last

Gain/Loss

AKAM

24-Jun-05

14.26

21.27

47.68%

BRK-B

7-Mar-05

3,005.00

2,984.00

-1.52%

CCEL.OB

16-Nov-05

3.89

3.35

-15.43%

CHS

26-Aug-05

35.05

42.00

15.26%

CKCM

13-Oct-05

16.06

21.10

26.28%

CVTX

19-May-05

21.01

24.94

17.59%

DWA

28-Mar-05

35.49

25.23

-29.35%

EWY

7-Jul-05

31.90

46.59

42.33%

EXEL

17-Jun-05

8.13

9.69

16.90%

FARO

21-Jan-05

27.29

20.46

-25.02%

FORM

20-Jan-05

22.81

25.44

11.53%

GOL

9-Dec-05

24.01

27.93

13.95%

GOOG

19-May-05

193.93

442.90

126.59%

IFN

7-Jul-05

30.15

42.89

38.43%

IMAX

21-Nov-05

9.29

7.35

-22.43%

ISRG

18-Nov-05

87.44

120.64

35.64%

LGF

20-Jun-05

10.47

8.11

-24.38%

MIDD

27-Jan-05

47.74

91.75

92.19%

MVL

20-Jan-05

18.12

16.37

-9.66%

MYGN

21-Jul-05

19.33

21.77

11.51%

NHC

25-Feb-05

34.20

37.00

3.73%

NTES

6-May-05

50.45

57.86

9.27%

NTO

20-May-05

2.14

3.47

51.72%

OSTK

28-Jan-05

53.15

27.00

-50.37%

PANL

6-Jun-05

9.97

11.26

11.86%

PDLI

30-Aug-05

18.49

30.15

61.97%

RADN

7-Jan-05

7.86

15.39

89.77%

RSTI

2-Mar-05

34.31

43.80

27.21%

RYN

7-Jan-05

28.67

41.34

41.51%

SNDA

4-Oct-05

31.03

16.26

-49.04%

SPDV.OB

28-Oct-05

1.71

1.52

-15.56%

TASR

31-Jan-05

17.69

7.12

-61.58%

TINY

7-Jan-05

10.50

14.40

33.95%

VRTX

20-Jan-05

12.06

28.30

133.72%

WFR

10-Jun-05

16.25

23.71

41.55%




Total:

21.72%

Closed positions -- prices at sale




Symbol

Sale Date

Paid

Sold

Gain/Loss

PRVD

05-Dec-05

34

33.54

-1.35%

PRVD

05-Dec-05

17.92

33.51

87.00%

CD

28-Oct-05

20.38

17.63

-13.49%

WOLF

06-Oct-05

20.85

9.46

-54.63%

NWY

07-Sep-05

18.5

15.8

-14.59%

DWRI

21-Dec-05

18.02

5.95

-66.98%

CNET

14-Oct-05

9.2

11.98

30.22%

CNET

14-Oct-05

10.14

11.98

18.15%

AAUK

07-Jul-05

22.5

23.44

4.18%




Total:

-1.28%

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Comments:
SNDA, FARO and even TASR will probably bounce back somewhat (maybe enough to recoup your losses or make money.

But I'm very very skeptical of OSTK, they lowered Q4 guidance today, Byrne is not entertaining anyone any more, and the stock is shorted like no other.

But eh, you're +21.72% for 2005, I'm little over 8%, maybe you shouldn't listen to me. kudos on your performance performance, if you check out on smartmoney.com, you'll see that most mutual funds are hovering around 8-12% for the year, so not only did you beat the indexes, but you beat the pros too. Congrats
 
Yep, I hear you on Overstock -- this is definitely a troublesome one. I'm getting a bit suspicious that Byrne might be angling to take the company private since he and his friends and family already own so much. I've been hemming and hawing on my OSTK holdings for months but haven't done anything -- this may be the time that my patience in selling is a real mistake, we'll see.

It was a nice year -- a couple real stinkers and a few 100%+ gainers (or close to it), certainly better than I was expecting.

Happy New Year!