Fear Brings Opportunity: Buying Naspers (NPSN)
At times like this, with global markets running in fear of a bubble and bringing market corrections down upon us all, I like to look for companies that I've been interested in but couldn't justify paying up for, and see if bargains are available. Today I did just that and opened a small entry position in Naspers Ltd. (NPSN). I wasn't actually intending to buy today, and had no idea Naspers would fall this far, but had a limit order in at what I considered last week to be a fair price for a small purchase.
I've written about Naspers before, in more detail, and you can review those posts if you like (when I looked at Naspers' history and prospects, and when I talked about their highest-growth partially-owned division, Tencent Holdings).
And I made clear that I had some reservations about Naspers, the most significant one of which was that I was afraid their valuation might be too rich given the risk of coming competition in their most profitable division, South African pay tv.
But today, the price cratered by well over 10%, due to the global market decline as well as to some Naspers-specific thing:. They're issuing a secondary offering to raise money for acquisitions, which certainly shouldn't impact shares this much (especially given their past success in this area); one of the competitors that we already knew would be coming last week announced the impending launch of a pay tv service in some of their African markets; and, of more immediate impact most likely, there's probably some fear for what will happen to Tencent Holdings when the market opens in Hong Kong tonight, since Naspers owns more than $2 billion worth of that Chinese company at yesterday's prices (36% of the company, as of the last filings I've seen) ... which translates to mean that roughly a third of Naspers' market cap consists of Tencent shares.
And while it's still not a cheap stock it at least has given back some of the speculative advance it made in the first part of this year, so I'm somewhat comfortable entering a position here. I bought shares this afternoon at $23.85. As you can see if you check the quote, I certainly missed the bottom -- it dipped well under $23 in a closing-hour flurry of selling.
So it's not a shock to say that this may well be a bit too early to be buying, if all the pundits are right about a market calamity being right around the corner -- the shares, after all, have climbed fairly dramatically since last Fall's bargain prices in the mid-teens, which came before I had heard of the company. Naspers has its fingers in emerging markets not only in South Africa and elsewhere on the continent, but around the world in all the hot spots including Russia, Thailand, China, Brazil (and just look at Gol and Sadia to see how my portfolio's getting racked by Brazilian fear today, too). Tencent is by far the largest of those investments, but there are many other fairly big ones ... and if those investments crater, the share price will doubtless follow.
But with a strong position as a leading publisher and tv and internet service provider in South Africa, and diversification in their international investments, I think the company will weather any storm reasonably well -- they're quite large, about a $7 billion company, so even if Tencent or Mail.ru goes bankrupt (neither seems likely to me), the company should survive.
And of course, for a company that's on the lookout for promising investments in media and internet stocks around the world, and a bit frustrated about the high costs of some potential acquisitions, a nice stock market downturn might be just what the doctor ordered. That is, if you've got the patience to wait a few years.
I've written about Naspers before, in more detail, and you can review those posts if you like (when I looked at Naspers' history and prospects, and when I talked about their highest-growth partially-owned division, Tencent Holdings).
And I made clear that I had some reservations about Naspers, the most significant one of which was that I was afraid their valuation might be too rich given the risk of coming competition in their most profitable division, South African pay tv.
But today, the price cratered by well over 10%, due to the global market decline as well as to some Naspers-specific thing:. They're issuing a secondary offering to raise money for acquisitions, which certainly shouldn't impact shares this much (especially given their past success in this area); one of the competitors that we already knew would be coming last week announced the impending launch of a pay tv service in some of their African markets; and, of more immediate impact most likely, there's probably some fear for what will happen to Tencent Holdings when the market opens in Hong Kong tonight, since Naspers owns more than $2 billion worth of that Chinese company at yesterday's prices (36% of the company, as of the last filings I've seen) ... which translates to mean that roughly a third of Naspers' market cap consists of Tencent shares.
And while it's still not a cheap stock it at least has given back some of the speculative advance it made in the first part of this year, so I'm somewhat comfortable entering a position here. I bought shares this afternoon at $23.85. As you can see if you check the quote, I certainly missed the bottom -- it dipped well under $23 in a closing-hour flurry of selling.
So it's not a shock to say that this may well be a bit too early to be buying, if all the pundits are right about a market calamity being right around the corner -- the shares, after all, have climbed fairly dramatically since last Fall's bargain prices in the mid-teens, which came before I had heard of the company. Naspers has its fingers in emerging markets not only in South Africa and elsewhere on the continent, but around the world in all the hot spots including Russia, Thailand, China, Brazil (and just look at Gol and Sadia to see how my portfolio's getting racked by Brazilian fear today, too). Tencent is by far the largest of those investments, but there are many other fairly big ones ... and if those investments crater, the share price will doubtless follow.
But with a strong position as a leading publisher and tv and internet service provider in South Africa, and diversification in their international investments, I think the company will weather any storm reasonably well -- they're quite large, about a $7 billion company, so even if Tencent or Mail.ru goes bankrupt (neither seems likely to me), the company should survive.
And of course, for a company that's on the lookout for promising investments in media and internet stocks around the world, and a bit frustrated about the high costs of some potential acquisitions, a nice stock market downturn might be just what the doctor ordered. That is, if you've got the patience to wait a few years.
This article posted by One Guy @ 2/27/2007 03:32:00 PM 0 comments
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