One Guy's Investments

The story of Travis Johnson's investment portfolio, with analysis and thoughts on the stocks and funds I've considered, bought and sold. I don't claim to have brilliant picks that will make you money, and I'm not an investment advisor, registered or otherwise, so don't follow my moves unless you're happy to lose money without suing someone. I'm just one guy. My articles get republished in several places, but always appear here first -- subscribe now(totally free via RSS) to see them before they're on Yahoo Finance.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007 -- Subscribe free

Acquirer goes up ... for a change (CX)

Nice boost this morning from Cemex (CX), which I have been watching on my "buy" list for a while now with an eye to adding to my holdings -- too bad I didn't buy a few more shares last week.

And this is truly an unusual one. Cemex has been trying to buy Rinker, the big Australian cement company (with, like Cemex, a preponderance of their business in the US) for quite some time. They bid $13 a share a few months ago, and just yesterday had a $15.85 a share offer accepted by Rinker's board. This is a little bit less than Rinker owners were hoping for, since it places a slightly lower EBITDA multiple on Rinker than has been paid in recent acquisitions in this space (using the purchase of Florida Rock by Vulcan Materials as a guide).

I think this is great for Cemex -- if it goes through, it will take some time to assimilate the financials and bring the Cemex way of business to Rinker's operations, but Cemex management has proven that they can integrate large acquisitions and make them accretive in surprisingly short order for what is essentially a boring and competitive commodity business. And they have some nice businesses, including prefab concrete pipe, that should fit nicely into the Cemex portfolio.

And while it would have been nice to acquire Semen Gresik to get a stronger toehold in Southeast Asia as they had originally planned a few years back, a foothold in Australia is certainly a lower-risk and potentially promising second choice. Australia is, after all, a lot closer to some of those key growth areas in Asia, in additional to being a booming market in its own right, so perhaps a strong presence there will make asian expansion more feasible for Cemex in the future.

So that's a nice international expansion kicker, but in truth this is primarily a US deal -- Rinker gets an even bigger percentage of sales from the US than Cemex does and operates only in the US and Australia, and they're pretty focused in some pretty overheated markets like Florida and Arizona, which is probably why, with the housing downturn, the Rinker board was willing to accept a little bit less than analysts had predicted.

So look outside for a blue moon -- a company just upped a bid to acquire a major rival, in the absence of any competing bids of substance, and their share price has already jumped up by 5% or so. That smells like a win for both Rinker and Cemex shareholders, and in the long run I think this will be a great deal for Cemex as they expand their dominant position in some of the world's key cement and concrete markets.

disclosure: I own Cemex and am kicking myself for not owning more. I don't own any other companies mentioned.

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