I subscribed to Oxford in March, 2004 and bought their highest recommendation (VAR) at 43.70.

This is what happened:

1-30-2006 - 60.24 (I should have sold when it began dropping)

9-18-2007 - 38.44 (I could have gotten back in here)

8-19-2008 - 64.72 (I should have sold when it began dropping)

Today - 51.55 (I'm still holding with a small gain that could have been much greater)

I didn't continue my subscription past the first year, but Oxford kept recommending VAR through the years (according to the teasers they kept sending me). I don't know their current position on Varian.

It's easy to buy good stocks. It's much harder to know when to sell.

Travis (Stock Gumshoe) offers excellent analysis of most teaser stocks. (Please read the Comments.)

The traders on this site have wonderful advice and suggestions. I wish I'd followed more of them. I think you'll do better listening to farley 5 and spreadtrader than you will subscribing to newsletters. Even the newsletters that tell you when to sell (like ChangeWave) usually send out alerts in the middle of the day. Those with full time jobs may not see the mid-day recommendations until they've sent the stock soaring (an extra cost for you), just as they don't see sell alerts until they've caused a substantial drop in price (an extra loss for you). It may not be an intentional 'pump and dump' but it acts in a similar manner.

Just remember to use STOPs as farley 5 suggests, or protective PUTs as spreadtrader suggests.

I thought I knew a lot about stocks when I began reading the posts on the Forum, but I was looking at the 'story' not the technical attributes. Please pay attention to both (or follow others who do). I've lost a lot of money in this market, but I've learned a lot.

If you go slow and read everything on this site, you'll be fine.

The investment letters to which I suscribe, pretty much provide what
I want...Ideas and thoughts. The problem is having enough experience to know what you want. The first letter I ever took was the old "Personal Finance"...'Just stock
ideas. I think if you blindly follow every recommendation, you'll be dissappointed.
I just ignore buying anything I'm not interested in, to begin with...
If the idea interests me; Makes sense; And I see a long-term likelihood
of growth,etc...If I can justify a long-term ownership...Then I can get a feel for it's trading opportunities....It sounds Dark Ages, compared to the excellent advise
"spreadtrader,farley5, and wwp offer...However, I've had long-term ideas I've
traded 3 or 4 times successfully (Sometimes, I'm just surprise by the sudden interest, and take profits in self-defense...I get surprised that way alot, now that I think of it...But why not?)
You need to start with what interests you..That way you trade in positions you have knowledge about...And that you form a judgement of the authors expertise...

Newsletter Score Card ? Well, The Gumshoe has graciously provided us with a TRACKING CHART to see how these infamous Newsletter Gurus have done. The chart 2008 + 2007 says it all.

Go to the main page and click on "Tracking".

Remember RED means down the toilet....GREEN means they got lucky. Seriously I am amazed at HOW BADLY their recommendations, across the board, have been !!

Nice to have a chart like this to place everything into perspective.

yah shred....it does involve some "work". But what are your options?

The easy one...go into a guys office (or read a newsletter) they tell you what to do....bingo / bango and you loose..."whatever"...20, 30, 50%. Thanks a whole lot. Did you learn or know what happened? Nope. All you know is you LOST. Blame it on the "advisor".

The harder one?. Well, reading books, checking charts, getting input from great guys on this site. You don't always "win"...but at least you have taken charge and been accountable for how you are investing your hard-earned money.

You raise several points worth comment. First, most market newsletters ONLY tell you what and when to buy. They do not tell you when to sell (except some say to use a 25% stop, trailing, protective, whatever). Most professional traders and portfolio managers will tell you that 25% protective stop loss is too much to lose....stated otherwise, over time you will go broke. That is why timing your entry is as important as the specific security you choose. Even more important is the decision to exit, whether to take a loss or a profit. Newsletter writers give grossly inadequate advice for timing exits. In my view, the reason the newsletters want you to use 25% stops is their acknowledgement that they don't know anything useful about timing entries or exits.

The stuff I sent you from Van Tharp on position sizing and risk control are critical skills to develop as a trader. If you read his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" he'll tell you that it is the difference between success and failure as a trader over the long haul. (Sadly, for some it is a short haul.) No newsletter writer that I know of tells you anything about how much to buy or more importantly, how much to risk (relative to the size of your portfolio) of what you do buy.

Your idea of using stops is good. However, stops should be set in relation to logical support points on the chart so that you don't get caught in the "noise" and lose a perfectly good position to "stop runners". If the stop you must set is too wide to fit the risk parameters of your portfolio, you have to have the discipline to pass on the trade, regardless of how great the "story" may be. One good example is Berkshire Hathaway. A great stock, yes? But you'd better have a lot of money to be able to withstand the risk of temporary (or extended) drawdowns.

In my view, tracking overall newsletter performance is worthless. Use the newsletters (if you must) for ideas (but you can get good ideas here for nothing). With the ideas, do your research, and apply what you learn about trading.
Certainly trading is not easy, otherwise, everyone would be doing it. But newsletters are mere sources of ideas. Their track records are meaningless for many reasons, some of which I haven't gone into.

spreadtrader.....ALWAYS LIKE your comments....you're a nice participant to this site !! thanks for taking the time to help us all out !!

On the "newsletter thing"...(as I groan)....on this site there are incessant questions and input asked for: "Is this guy good ...is this guy bad?" I think you're right about "newsletters = ideas"....HOWEVER...but the reality is....most folks on this site are using? / wishing? / relying on?....the newsletter gurus to be "right". and a lot of people ACT on their advice....not just the "for ideas" angle.

Why do I say this? Well because many posting start with: " I used this service and lost my shirt"....."I used this service and lost money for the last 6 months"....."I bought the recommendation and its down 42%"........." etc etc etc. What does that tell us? It tells us that people are TAKING ACTION on the recommendations and not merely using the teasers / stories / as IDEAS....but as stock picks. When they act on the "advice"....and the pick goes sour....the advisor / newsletter "advice" is questioned... then the ball rolls....yet again...."Which newsletter service have you found to be the most reliable ?"

So the TECHNIQUES that you outline....as in trailing stops...insight into the commodity sectors....whatever....are the KEY. Within that people can get ideas....and make their own stock "picks". The ol' addage: give a person a fish and you can feed them for a DAY...teach them how to fish and you can feed them for a LIFETIME.

If we go over the posts in the last....whatever...3 months....(and things have changed in that period....understatement).....let's go out on a limb:......

>> newsletter services....stories....suggestions....are IDEAS. Ideas only. Here comes the provocative: don't invest in any of the picks. The feedback on this site more than validates this course of action. Who, if any, are "satisfied" with the newsletter gurus? Use the ideas...take the suggestions and DDD.....and further pick your own stocks.

>> start a new thread....throw into the pot (via a whisper) what your "best" and favorite 2 stocks are (you can create this if you browse the various posts herein).

>> start a "bible"....trailing stops....exits are actually more improtant than entry points.....sectors to watch (and these change of course)

In essence, The Gumshoe has created our own "newsletter" and it is not fraught with hype, vested interests or the like...it's what WWP said...can't remember the exact adjective...but we are just normal schleps trying to get ahead in this quicksand.

Well hells' bells....if I have to listen to anyone and act on anything....I'd sure take it from this group rather than the noise of the newsletters that clog my in-basket each day (especially now...since everyone has :"the answer".

A place I have sent people who want to learn how fast they can loose money is http://www.marketocracy.com/ set up a fund and it will track you ideas.

Yes, that's somewhat confusing, and different people may interpret this diiferently, but here's how I would explain it.

There really is no divergence of opinion. Trend following is the predominant and best known trading/investing method. It permits the investor to take advantage of the prevailing move in the price of a security. The trick is understanding where to get on and to do that effectively you have to learn where a trend begins and where it may be ending. That's where "contrarians" come into the picture.

By definition, trend followers "follow" someone, the crowd, it is said. Sometimes they follow right off the cliff. Contrarians don't follow the crowd. They want to set or lead the trend. They get in early either at the beginning or end and have strong stomachs because sometimes they get in way too early and have to ride out a steep drawdown or take small losses until they finally get the satisfaction of saying "I told you so".

Either way, the path to success is "buy low and sell high" or "sell high and buy back low". A third and fourth alternative is "buy or sell both ends against the middle" and "buy and sell the middle", but we won't go into that right now.

Hope this helps.

So it doesn't sound like you rely upon the "hurry up, you must invest now or you'll miss out on this once in a lifetime opportunity" sales schtick with which most newsletter writers assail their readers; and as an experienced investor you don't time investment entries based upon their "advice" either.

Unlike you, not everyone who buys newsletters understands their numerous and deep limitations......

I think the caution we are giving here is : "don't leap on the advice of a newsletter guru". And folks can say " Nah I would NEVER do that...I will always make up my own mind". Good for you. Well guess what? Many people want their hands-held and want to be told what to do...and they act on it.

Heck, there have been TONS of teasers that I have read that make "total sense"....creative writing, sense of urgency, compelling arguments, LENGHTY pitches....all tend to makes one say: "well....SURE". THAT"S the magic and brilliance of the Gumshoe site...and indeed the Forum within it. It tempers that urge to ACT on some hype driven advertising piece. It peeks behind the curtain to tell us REALLY what is behind the hype.

Sure people can, and should do "their due diligence"... a lot don't WANT to...it's too much work !!...and it places all accountability on YOU (gee, scary) It's better to subscribe to the Newsletter Guy and just act on what they tell me...'cause they know WAY more than I do !! (NOT)

So I think the posts herein are mainly directed to:..... the newbies to the markets...or the people who are super-busy and have no time to do research, or the ones who would like it just "quick-and-easy". If you are in that category...don't get sucked in by newsletter guys. If you are NOT in those categories then you already have a sense of discretion already!! You can use them for "ideas", but not as literal "stock picks".

I did check that out...What a hoot.
You crack me up....When were're not butting heads....'Wouldn't trade for either.