Not signed in (Sign In)

Categories

Vanilla 1.1.2 is a product of Lussumo. More Information: Documentation, Community Support.

Welcome Guest!
Want to take part in these discussions? If you have an account, sign in now.
If you don't have an account, apply for one now.

Sleuth Challenges and Solutions: How To Play The November 19 Announcement

Bottom of Page

1 to 45 of 45

  1.  
    • CommentAuthorRegent
    • CommentTimeNov 15th 2008
     Report Post# 1
    Agora's "Breakthrough Technology Alert" is breathlessly touting its discovery of a biotech alliance that could be worth $1 billion. It seems to be related to stem cells, but I can't figure out what four companies they are alluding to. Any ideas?
    • CommentAuthorslam608
    • CommentTimeNov 15th 2008
     Report Post# 2
    huh????
  4.  Report Post# 3
    This tease has more hype than I've ever seen. Clues are few.

    The breakthough involves iPS (Induced Pluripotent Stem) cells and, if it works, will cure every disease. For example, doctors could use the patient's own cells, convert them into IPS cells, which could then be turned into new lung tissue for those with cycstic fibrosis. Most research is being conducted at the university level. Profit seems to be years away but the possibilites are limitless (again, if it works).

    Look at STEM:

    StemCells, Inc. (STEM) announced today that results pertaining to the Company’s research programs in retinal degeneration as well as spinal cord injury will be presented at the Society for Neuroscience Annual Meeting scheduled for November 15-19, 2008 in Washington, DC.

    This is probably one of the companies being teased. Other companies involved in iPS research are PFE, GERN, ASTM but there are several tiny ones like ACTC which sells for 2-3 cents a share.
    • CommentAuthorMxlplytz
    • CommentTimeNov 15th 2008
     Report Post# 4
    Not sure if this is related but I have been watching the companies involved in RNAi R&D that has been going on for a while.

    If you not up to speed on this here is a site with an explanation, neat stuff by the way, hope they figure it all out and get it to work.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3210/02.html

    The companies I am watching are -

    AZN, BMY, ISIS. MRK, NVS and PFE

    There might be more but these are the ones I have so far.
    Thankful People: krishna
  6.  Report Post# 5
    I did VERY well with Sirna Therapeutics (RNAI) that was bought up in Jan. 2007. I was looking into this way back then, and there's way more to come.
    • CommentAuthordave407
    • CommentTimeNov 16th 2008
     Report Post# 6
    i think it has to do with RNA interference (RNAi), the guys who won the nobel prize, Craig Mellow &Andrew Fire, I am thinking it has something to do with Biogen(CEO is scheduled to give a talk Wed), possibly Amylin(AMLN) which Carl Icahn has taken big stakes in, i couldn't find any insider buying though, mostly selling, Boston seems to be where it is happening...also Pfizer may have something to do with it...anybody know reputation of this patrick cox?
    • CommentAuthordave407
    • CommentTimeNov 16th 2008
     Report Post# 7
    also look at this ALNY and their website
    • CommentAuthorrosmarina
    • CommentTimeNov 16th 2008
     Report Post# 8
    There are about many companiesAlnylam involved in RNAi therapies. ALNT (Alnylam) is one of them with patents. The others with patents are MDRNK (MRNA), RXi Pharma (RXII), and Tekmira (TKM:TSX) ... also on PK. Merck took over Sirna Therapeutics; they also hold patents. I think it is RXi which will be making an announcement on 19 November, as they have been recently awarded a patent for the oral delivery of RNAi therapy. You can check these out and see which ones ad up to 36.90 on the date given in the tease. Some combination of these should come close.
    • CommentAuthorrosmarina
    • CommentTimeNov 16th 2008
     Report Post# 9
    messed up the first line ... alny is Alnylam. A further thought ... Opko corporation (OPK) has the leading RNAi product at the moment (Bevasiranib).
    • CommentAuthordave407
    • CommentTimeNov 16th 2008
     Report Post# 10
    well, i think what is happening nov 19, is the Lazard Capital 5th Annual Healthcare Conference..i tried googling that, but looks like there are quite a few companies...any ideas?
  13.  Report Post# 11
    Insider buying for ArQule, Inc. (ARQL). ARQL is presenting at the Lazard Conference on November 19.

    Also HGS insider buys, November 19 presentation.
    • CommentAuthorfarley 5
    • CommentTimeNov 17th 2008
     Report Post# 12
    I posted this on the main site. Go to Topix.com. Type in Stem Cell "November 19" and BTIM comes up. Matches the above.
  15.  Report Post# 13
    This company develops human embryonic progenitor cells. I don't think there's a breakthough here, but I'm not an expert. (BioTime isn't presenting at the Lazard Conference.)
  16.  Report Post# 14
    PFE is collaborating with SLN, which is presenting at the Lazard Conference on November 19.

    Here's some information about Silence Therapeutics PLC (UK):

    "...the Company is focusing on the development of its ribonucleic acid interference (RNAi) technology, which is moving from the pre-clinical into clinical development phase. Silence Therapeutics has developed a short interfering RNA (siRNA) molecule, called AtuRNAi, and a systemic delivery system, AtuPLEX."
  17.  Report Post# 15
    The tease mentioned an alliance. This is Pfizer's announcement:

    "Pfizer opening unit to focus on stem cells

    November 14, 2008 1:59 PM ET

    TRENTON, N.J. (AP) - Pfizer Inc., the world's largest drugmaker, said Friday it has launched a new biotechnology research unit focused on developing stem cell-based treatments for a wide range of conditions.

    The unit, called Pfizer Regenerative Medicine, will be located in two of the global hubs for biotech research — Cambridge, England, and Cambridge, Mass.

    New York-based Pfizer plans to invest about $100 million in the project over the next three to five years, Pfizer spokeswoman Kristen Neese said.

    "That number could flux based on the collaborations that we sign onto," she said in an interview.

    Pfizer said the unit, designed to operate with the flexibility and independent culture of the biotech industry, will collaborate with researchers at biotech and drug companies and universities around the world. Some of those collaborations are to be announced in coming weeks."
    Thankful People: Mxlplytz
    • CommentAuthordstephan
    • CommentTimeNov 17th 2008 edited
     Report Post# 16
    The Lazard conference is at the St.Regis hotel. The tease for a presentation at a "well known university". BioTime CEO Michael West is presenting at the University of Wisconsin at the "A Decade Celebrating Stem Cells" conference on the 19th. The tease also mentions "in the evening". The Wisconsin series is called "Academy Evenings."
    Thankful People: stockcrazy10
    • CommentAuthordchanko
    • CommentTimeNov 17th 2008
     Report Post# 17
    Beware of cheapies like BTIM , spiked 16% + today on 10 times avg volume... dont be surprised to if they copy STEM and try to raise capital by unloading a boatload of shares.
  20.  Report Post# 18
    I finally found what I was looking for (iPS) in this description of BioTime's research:

    "These licenses include technology that allows the rapid isolation of novel highly purified embryonic progenitor cells, technology for producing induced pluripotent stem cells ("iPS"), embryonic stem cell differentiation technology, and other technology for the manufacture and commercialization of human embryonic stem cell-derived cell types and related products."

    BioTime is working with ACTC, GERN and ISCO but these 4 add up to less than 10.00.

    I haven't found the pill form delivery stock yet. Genteric sold it's intellectual property to Altor BioScience Corporation, a private company, in 2005.
    • CommentAuthordave407
    • CommentTimeNov 17th 2008
     Report Post# 19
    i agree with rosmarina, i think it is RXi Pharma(the guy who won the nobel prize seems to be a part owner and worker) , but i don't think the announcement has to do with them having the oral delivery method which they licensed from U of Mass., because that has already been in the news. I think they will announce something different. But I think they may still be aways from the hype in the letter of curing some diseases. The company CYTR seems to own 45% of RXi, but it is only a 40cents stock. I think these 2 are at least a part of the puzzle. I think after the announcement it isn't going to catapult to astronomic levels instantaneously. So, we have some time even after the announcement. Then, we can figure out how much is hype and how rapidly to act.
  22.  Report Post# 20
    Farley found BTIM. That's the first piece of the puzzle.
    • CommentAuthorrosmarina
    • CommentTimeNov 18th 2008
     Report Post# 21
    I expect that the reason the 4 stocks add up to $36.90 is that it includes either ALNY ( or possibly MRK), plus RXi, and two smaller ones; like BTIM, MDNA, OPK or TKM. I agree with Dave that there is time to act after the big announcement (whatever it turns out to be).
  24.  Report Post# 22
    I've been looking at the fundamentals of the aforementioned stocks, and they don't look good. I like the work that ALNY has been doing, and they have partnerships with several of the biggies. They have a very promising approach to malaria, for example. But there appears to be selling by "informed investors" and shorting. They get about a C on fundamentals, and RXII gets a D.
    Thankful People: stockcrazy10, krishna, spreadtrader, asafp
    • CommentAuthorCoachh
    • CommentTimeNov 18th 2008
     Report Post# 23
    I've actually been following BTIM for nearly a year. The short term gains make the stock fun when you look at the brokerage balance, but this is a long term hold for me. Once you get into the potential of the competing technologies, BTIM has the clear advantage. Michael West (not Smith, don't know why the article switched names) actually invented and patented the technologies at Geron and ACTC and has since moved on to BTIM and its subsidiary Embryome Sciences. His advantage is the ability to (in lay terms) take samples of skin cells from a patient and manipulate them into the equivalent of stem cells for currently any one of 140 body tissue types. In a nutshell, a patient with macular degeneration gets an exact tissue matched stem cell treatment for his/her eyes. Injecting the stem cells in the eye replaces all damaged tissues without the need for surgery. The biggest obstacles for BTIM will be not competition, but FDA red tape and patient, non-meddling investors. This really is a technological breakthrough that will have far reaching affects, if not with BTIM, with somebody, and soon.
  26.  Report Post# 24
    I'm very excited about the technology but I'm afraid BTIM is a long way from profitability. The emphasis on selling tools to other researchers and biotech firms will make BTIM less volatile, but the iPS work is the reward.
    • CommentAuthortuck
    • CommentTimeNov 18th 2008
     Report Post# 25
    Several months ago I was doing some recreational reading(didn't save it)about a diabetes treatment using adult stem cells being done in Brazil. The point was made that adult stem cell treatments weren't creating as much interest in the US because they were less likely to produce something to patent(enforce?). Could the same difficulties arise with BTIM's approach?

    I bought BTIM because it was a sound solid pump. It's going to take something extremely persuasive to stop the dump. I don't go in for these new fangled, hare brained buy and hold theories.
    • CommentAuthorfarley 5
    • CommentTimeNov 18th 2008
     Report Post# 26
    Tuck - you brought up the stupid notion of Buy & Hold. I can show you at least twenty fundamental reports that say to buy GE. Unfortunately, the market did not care and supply was in control. Take a look at this picture - IF YOU DARE ! ! ! ! ! This will clearly show you why you must manage the trade:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GE,P

    If you liked the story in 2003 and bought when demand was in control, you would be in at the trendline break at $29. The first sell signal was in January of 2008. The signal you would take was the second double bottom at $33. Now, did you get out at the high of $40? No. Traders would have used a $0.50 box size to speed up the chart and would be out at the trendline break at $35 or the spread triple bottom break at $34.50 at worst.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GE,PLUBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G

    My point? You can not invest like my Grandfather did and stuff stock certs into the lockbox. The economy changes, stocks change, and so must we. (I'm now off of my soapbox). TA DA!
    Thankful People: dharouff
  29.  Report Post# 27
    Stated otherwise, be sure you're the pumper and not the dumpee.
  30.  Report Post# 28
    Here's the announcement from BTIM, which is not exactly worthy of a drum roll:

    http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/130199.php
  31.  Report Post# 29
    Thanks, WWP.

    It's a disappointment. Not because I bought the stock (I didn't), but because I wanted the miracle cure that iPS might bring. Maybe someday.
    • CommentAuthortuck
    • CommentTimeNov 20th 2008
     Report Post# 30
    It went up 3 days in a row. Then yesterday it gapped up for the 3rd day in a row. I'm amazed I waited that long. What was I thinking? I made a bad play and got lucky.
    • CommentAuthordave407
    • CommentTimeNov 20th 2008
     Report Post# 31
    Well, are we sure it is BTIM? It is funny, Nov 19 on Catie Couric they were featuring the story about the surgeons in Spain that had implanted a windpipe made from the stem cells of this woman and were interviewing a Dr. from Wake Forest Regenerative Center. I couldn't find a link to any of these companies. I picked up 200 of BTIM just in case(of course it went down), but guess it is a long term play, of course Vanderbilt didn't get rich overnight in the railroad :) if there is any good news; i will buy some more. I don't think i have ever done well with these stocks these guys tease with. i am about to get over being a sucker, school is costly :)
  34.  Report Post# 32
    BioTime is the teased company.

    BioTime sells tools (standardized human and animal stem cell lines and corresponding data and reagents) to stem cell researchers.

    The stem cell technology tools were developed by Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. BioTime bought an exclusive license to use ACTCellerate embryonic stem cell technology and progenitor cell lines derived using that technology.

    BTIM will not be performing breakthrough research. They'll facilitate this research by providing stem cell research tools to others.
    • CommentAuthortuck
    • CommentTimeNov 20th 2008
     Report Post# 33
    Another good story but new medical procedures or treatments don't necessarily fit the patent, package, sell model. Can you patent a procedure that uses the patients own cells? Can you enforce it?
  36.  Report Post# 34
    Probably not. Which may be why BioTime wants to sell the tools.

    Massachusetts has a Life Sciences Initiative that is supporting scientists involved in stem cell/RNAi/iPS research. The intellectual property derived from this research will be available to all. (ALNY and RXII are two companies who expect to benefit from commercialization of this research.)

    It might be possible to patent a technique, depending on what's involved, but research supported by groups like the Life Sciences Initiative will be available to all interested parties.
    • CommentAuthorMxlplytz
    • CommentTimeNov 24th 2008
     Report Post# 35
    Here is a couple of lists that I an across that might be useful-

    Motley Fool top 40 drug company candidates
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Du0YWLylHeA/SShuxwJSq8I/AAAAAAAAAYk/1W4U0f0DkYs/s1600-h/biopharm22nov08.JPG

    FDA approval calendar -
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Du0YWLylHeA/SSdwWh73FnI/AAAAAAAAAYM/iGX4Vo3uPbo/s1600-h/fdac21nov08.JPG
    Thankful People: stockcrazy10
  38.  Report Post# 36
    You might take a look at other subsectors in health, which tend to be more stable than the drug and biotech cos. I bought DaVita (DVA) and HMSY last week and have gotten a nice gain. Their fundamentals are good so they may still have more upside. (I was looking at DaVita and Fresenius because of a reported sharp increase in patients needing dialysis because of diabetes.) This is not a recommendation, by the way, just info. And Farley, I'm using stop losses.
    Thankful People: farley 5
  39.  Report Post# 37
    Just to follow up on WWp's comment: I'm going to be a wet blanket here. I traded in some biotechs up to last year - even made some big profits in a few (like ARQL mentioned above,) and lost my shirt in others. I now avoid biotechs that don't have profits; There are just too many competing technologies, and competing companies, for me to figure out who the rare winners will be. Even the insiders don't seem to have a clue as to which specific treatment will be dominant in just a few years in any evolving area. It's a crap shoot. Even looking at this thread, consider how many companies have been mentioned in response to a four-company tease. Most of them (at least the non-profitable ones) will continue to burn through their asset base, and will require refinancing and dilution just to stay in business.

    I'd rather gamble in areas where I think the outcome is somewhat more predictable and the odds are more squarely in my favor (such as, for example, wind power - Vestas and Gamesa.) It's still, to a certain extent, gambling, but not just a crap shoot.
    • CommentAuthorfarley 5
    • CommentTimeNov 24th 2008
     Report Post# 38
    ID - DK if you saw my post here:

    http://oneguysinvestments.com/gumshoe/comments.php?DiscussionID=1551&page=1#Item_5

    We are still early so nothing more than a toe dip for now.
  41.  Report Post# 39
    How about a toenail?
    • CommentAuthorMxlplytz
    • CommentTimeNov 24th 2008
     Report Post# 40
    Having been involved with big Pharma and the FDA for many years and having to deal with all the delays in getting drug approvals I also avoid the pharma sector, especially start-ups.

    Far too many a slip betwixt the (medicine) cup and the lip!
    Thankful People: stockcrazy10
  43.  Report Post# 41
    Farley 5,
    Thanks, yes, I saw it. I'm watching the solars also, and even just bought a bit of STP, which is one of the few profitable ones and a low-cost leader (though analysts' prognostications of their future fundamentals are being slashed mercilessly.) However, solar just isn't close to being competitive with wind yet. They're both dependent on gov't. subsidies, but wind has the clear edge. In another decade or so, solar may catch up. For now, if gov't.'s want the biggest bang for their buck in green alternative energy, wind is the way to go. I think if they have to cut back, solar will lose out first. Additionally, because the technological front in solar is moving faster, with a greater variety of competing technologies, than wind, I think the wind leaders have a more firmly-entrenched position. No newbie is going to come along with a wind turbine 30% more efficient than what Vestas and Gamesa already have, and they're making incremental improvements all the time.
  44.  Report Post# 42
    Duke Energy is dabbling in both wind and solar.
    • CommentAuthorasafp
    • CommentTimeNov 26th 2008
     Report Post# 43
    Anybody who likes the health care sector now might want to look at HQH.
    http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/sectors.asp?MFID=3774

    28% discount. 14% yield.
  46.  Report Post# 44
    I'd wait until the chart gets out of the ICU where it was taken six days ago.
    • CommentAuthorMxlplytz
    • CommentTimeNov 28th 2008
     Report Post# 45
    Ran across this list for companies involved in RNAi R&D. Don't have any other info on these companies so names are just fyi -

    7 Company Profiles-U.S
    7.1 Alfacell Corporation
    7.2 Allele Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals, Inc
    7.3 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
    7.4 Ambion
    7.5 Asuragen, Inc
    7.6 Avalon Pharmaceuticals, Inc
    7.7 B-Bridge International, Inc
    7.8 Bio-Rad Laboratories
    7.9 Calando Pharmaceuticals, Inc
    7.10 Cepheid
    7.11 Cequent
    7.12 Clontech Laboratories, Inc
    7.13 CombiMatrix Corporation
    7.14 Cyntellect, Inc
    7.15 CytRx Corp
    7.16 Dharmacon
    7.17 Dicerna
    7.18 Galenea Corporation
    7.19 GeneCopoeia, Inc
    7.20 GeneThera, Inc
    7.21 Genlantis
    7.22 GenoSensor
    7.23 GRL, Inc
    7.24 IDT
    7.25 Imgenex Corporation
    7.26 Ingenuity Systems
    7.27 Intradigm Corporation
    7.28 Invitrogen
    7.29 InvivoGen
    7.30 Isis Pharmaceuticals, LLC
    7.31 LC Sciences
    7.32 Lentigen Corporation
    7.33 Merck & Co., Inc
    7.34 Mirus Bio Corporation (Acquired by Roche)
    7.35 Monsanto
    7.36 Nastech Pharmaceutical Company, Inc
    7.37 New England BioLabs
    7.38 Nucleonics, Inc
    7.39 Open Biosystems, Inc
    7.40 OPKO Health, Inc
    7.41 OriGene
    7.42 Panomics, Inc
    7.43 PhaseRx
    7.44 Promega Corp
    7.45 Quark Pharmaceuticals, Inc
    7.46 RXi Pharmaceuticals Corporation
    7.47 Senetek PLC
    7.48 Sigma-Aldrich
    7.49 Sirna Therapeutics
    7.50 Sirnaomics, Inc
    7.51 SomaGenics, Inc
    7.52 System Biosciences
    7.53 Tacere Therapeutics
    7.54 Targeted Genetics Corporation
    7.55 Third Wave Technologies
    7.56 Traversa
    8 Company Profiles-Europe
    8.1 Actigenics SA
    8.2 Amaxa
    8.3 AstraZeneca PLC
    8.4 Cenix Bioscience GmbH
    8.5 deVGen N.V
    8.6 DNAVision
    8.7 Exiqon
    8.8 Genovis
    8.9 genOway
    8.10 imaGenes GmbH
    8.11 MWG Biotech AG
    8.12 OZ Biosciences
    8.13 Prosensa Holding
    8.14 QIAGEN
    8.15 RNAx GmbH (Germany)
    8.16 Roche
    8.17 Rosetta Genomics, Ltd
    8.18 Santaris Pharma A/S
    8.19 Silence Therapeutics PLC
    8.20 TaconicArtemis GmbH
    8.21 TRANSAT
    9 Company Profiles-Asia-Pacific
    9.1 alphaGEN Co., Ltd
    9.2 Benitec, Ltd
    9.3 Bioneer
    9.4 CytoPathfinder, Inc
    9.5 Genesis Research & Development Corp
    9.6 GeneDesign, Inc
    9.7 GNI Pharmaceutical Corporation
    9.8 Koken Co., Ltd
    9.9 NanoCarrier Co., Ltd
    9.10 Oncolys Biopharma, Inc
    9.11 RealGene Bio-Technologies, Inc
    9.12 Samchully Pharmaceuticals
    9.13 Samyang Corp
    9.14 Shanghai Biochip
    9.15 Shanghai GenePharma Co
    9.16 Shanghai Genomics, Inc
    9.17 Transgene Biotek, Ltd
    10 Company Profiles-Rest of the World
    10.1 Benitec, Ltd
    10.2 Tekmira

1 to 45 of 45

  1.