I have a theoretical question. If you KNEW that this was the market bottom, what would you buy first?

Good question WWP and a good way to think positively!

Seeing as transports and semi's have in the past lead any major recovery I would consider starting there first for the initial run up. Then the commodities like oil, fertilizer, etc and also consumer stocks would all seem to be a good long idea. To round the portfolio off I would add some of the stronger fundamentaled higher dividend paying S&P arisrocrats.

Thanks, Mxlplytz. I'm thinking of putting together a recovery portfolio to put into play once my poorhouse portfolio stops working. Gotta be the early bird. This recovery might be a little different from others. Financials usually play a role in recovery, and I just don't want to get anywhere near most of them.

And thanks, Farley, as always.

Good news for one of my companies, AMSC:

American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC), a leading energy technologies company, today announced that it has entered into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) to validate the economics of a full 10 megawatt (MW) class superconductor wind turbine. AMSC is separately developing full 10 MW-class wind turbine component and system designs. A CRADA allows the Federal government and industry partners to optimize their resources, share technical expertise in a protected environment and speed the commercialization of technologies.

Obama is visiting a CAT plant in Illinois. I think Obama's visit suggests that CAT will benefit from the stimulus plan.

Very interesting. I think CAT's share of the stimulus bill is assured.

That looks worse than Nancy Pelosi naked.

Asafp - When did you see her naked?

Ya'll know how to ruin good booze.

This is technical analysis. When the chart forms a Pelosi pattern with everything heading south in a hurry, don't buy that stock.

How about a Cheney pattern, which forms a black hole into which everything good disappears.

Here's one for you WWP. Avoid this pattern like the Plague!

WWP - To get back to stocks and just to make sure you are not chasing wind-mills here :)

AMSC stock has been consolidating and trading in a range between $14.75 and $19.50 since January after a nice run-up. Technically, the BBands are starting to narrow. obv, stochastics, W%R and macd aren't looking too bad. Noticed that volume is not too robust and in a bit of a downtrend since early Feb. May just be the market conditions.

Fundamentally here is some info -

Background-
American Superconductor Corporation is considered to operate in the Technology sector. They specifically operate in the Diversified Electronics business segment contained within the Electronics industry.

An energy technology company, which offers an array of solutions based on two proprietary technologies: programmable power electronic converters and high temperature superconductor wires.

AMSC Revenue
For a long time, value investors have used the current share price relative to sales per share levels as an important valuation tool. We utilize a historical weighted average methodology that treats recent years more importantly in the calculation. When looking at AMSC through this framework, we can see that our weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales per share ratios over the last 10 years are 14.39x and 3.85x respectively.

Utilizing this range we can see that AMSC’s current Price to Sales per share ratio of 4.94x is significantly below its average levels historically. In fact, with a current price of $18.55, AMSC is a full 46% below its average Price to Sales ratio at comparable sales levels. This is a rare occurrence and, when taken in context of the other areas of our analysis, can be a strong positive for our outlook for AMSC.

AMSC Cash Earnings
When a company has current positive cash earnings but not enough years of history to compare it to, we find the correlation of cash earnings to valuation significantly hindered. So with AMSC, we will have to wait to see if there are a few more cycles of positive Cash Earnings numbers before we will be confident in our Cash Earnings analysis.

Key Fundamentals

Price (2/11/2009) $18.04
Volume (2/11/2009) 378,400
10 Day Average Volume 699,300
13 Week Price Range $8.22 - $19.58
52 Week Price Range $8.22 - $47.53
LTM Revenue $159.9 Million

Shares Outstanding (03/2008) 43.3 Million
Market Capitalization $780.9 Million
Shares Held By Institutions 38.0 Million
Institutional Holders 174
% Shares Held By Institutions 87.70%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) ($0.65)
P/E Ratio n/a
Book Value Per Share $5.12

Gross Margin 31.80%
Quarterly Dividend 0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Beta 1.95
Fiscal Year Ends March

Short Interest -

Short Interest (Shares Short) 10,768,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 13.5
Short Percent of Float 28.11 %
Short Interest - Prior 9,287,100
Short % Increase / Decrease 15.95 %

As with many stocks they tend to move with the market and this one is no exception. Except that I noticed some relative strength to the S&P since early January.

And of course this company being in alternate energy should benefit from our beloved leader and President Barack Obama and his truly righteous plan to raise up this beaten down economy and save all mankind from the 8 year total disaster that will now forever besmirch American economic history and will be always darkly remembered as those 'Darn 8-Ball Bush Years'.

heh, heh

China article from Stratfor:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/03/12/china-exports-drop.aspx

Feb exports fell 25.7% over last year following a 17.5% drop in January.

Drys just reported the deal they cut with PBR and their stock is up 22%, REXX is on the move up along with other energy stocks. Gold is still in the impressive run up as foriegn curr. gain on the dollar. Silver up check out FNV.V and SLV.

Baltic dry curled down again. All shipping will suffer.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$BDI,PYUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!100.0!!2!20]&pref=G

These kinds of questions merely raise more questions. First, I wouldn't tell you or anyone when they should sell. Here's why........What was your plan when you bought this? Did you put on a full or partial position? Do you see other opportunities that are now better than the one you opted for when you bought the stock? If the market went up faster than you thought are the reasons that you bought the stock still sound? Are there other alternatives (options) to selling the stock?

You should run through these things before you buy the stock. That way you know what you'll want to do if certain things happen. I own three shippers (not EXM) and it's true the sector isn't favored. But i'm holding while the dividend yields are excellent and I can wait for the turn around if the bottom doesn't fall out. EXM looks like it cut its dividend, but I have it as a potential triple when the shippers turn around. Of course, it may not triple.

Here's a couple articles on EXM:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128709-why-i-prefer-excel-maritime-to-dryships

http://seekingalpha.com/article/121544-slippery-slope-dry-bulk-shipping-contracts-begin-to-default

The second article is about the long term risks for almost all of the dry shippers, not just EXM, though it is used as the example.

If your reasons for buying the stock are still valid and the price hasn't yet met your objective (meaning that you'd like to continue to hold the stock) you may want to consider buying puts and/or selling calls to protect and/or enhance the position. Look at the May 5.00 puts as protection for .35 per contract ($350). They are reasonably cheap, or you can finance them by selling half as many May 7.50 calls at .80 per contract ($800). This would lock in your profit at 7.50 at no extra cost in the event half the stock got called away. It also gives you protection against a pullback in the stock price between now and the third Friday in May. Let me know if you need more detail about how this works.

Otherwise, when you sell and why is up to you, but again, it should be part of your plan........and it's best if you write it out before you make the trade.

You're not alone and your comments are not unusual. One of the things that you will find will happen if you start planning your strategies and tactics is the "fear and paralysis" will disappear. Of course, that's often by degrees and it can come and go, but most traders/investors totally ignore the human variable in trading and it is probably the most important.

Like most things in life, CONFIDENCE is everything. If you think you can do it, you probably can......and if you don't think you can do it.......well...... Of course, confidence comes with knowledge and experience. So learn how to do some method of trading well, then start doing it over and over again. Apply some self discipline and soon you'll have the confidence you need to succeed at it. There is one by-product of confidence that you should be forewarned about, so's when it hits you'll be aware of it..........confidence is sexy!

Have a great weekend......I think I'll start mine early.........Go Wings!!!!

Thanks spreadtrader and dmanson, I'll take that advice and try to follow it!
Dave

I sold BOBS ages ago and made a nice profit (bought it at 1.50). I wouldn't buy it now.