Since I don't have a clue about tech and healthcare, I'm big on natural resources and energy. Tech: The profitable plays aren't cheap, and the emerging technologies are evolving so fast I can't keep up, and can't tell who will be displaced by what. Healthcare: This is so thoroughly politicized, with so many political cross-currents, that I can't tell where, if anywhere, the profits will be.
Natural resources and energy: Prices of both the natural resource commodities and the stocks of natural resource & energy companies have been so beaten down, I think there are loads of incredible bargains out there. Aside from a natural, and, I think, inevitable, recovery in the underlying commodities prices, this is also a bet against the dollar.
Zack's has an industry ranking list, and according to my little birdy friend, restaurants and textiles have made a big move up. Can't say I agree. But among the textile group, the highest ranked was Culp (CFI). Haven't checked it out yet. Restaurants listed were BWLD, TAST, CMG.B, CBRL, PZZA. Again, haven't researched them.
In restaurants, RRGB has a strong chart. It's a stock that was recommended a lot prior to the meltdown.
I was in one a couple times recently on a weeknight and the place was packed. The prices seem to be a little higher than similar places, so they should be able to make money on each customer (as opposed to having customers and losing money on each one as was discussed elsewhere).
Btw, The non-burger items are the best in my humble opinion as an amateur restaurant critic.
Also, financials are strong, but they scare the heck out of me. Is anyone here buying bank stocks?
wow, looking at F5, wwp list, I wouldnt have guessed - like ig, I am focussed on Nat Res & Energy, which seem to have done well in this rally. (Are we there yet?)
Asafp, In a sense, the financials are like healthcare: Highly politicized, with many political cross-currents. If you have a handle on what the feds (Treasury, Congress, Fed Reserve) will do, there's plenty of money to be made. Personally, since I don't have a clue, I'm staying away. It's a shame; Usually, I find the actions of politicians & their friends more predictable than this. I suspect their unpredictability is due to their not having any idea what they're doing.
IG, good point. I'm tempted to buy SKF now. Marty Weiss and company and Tobin Smith who've made good calls on the inverse ETFs have been quiet lately. There still might be some more irrational optimism left.
Asafp, I see SKF took quite a dive today. As I said, I can't tell which way the political wind is blowing in this area - it's often turning on a dime these days - I'm staying away. Anyway, there are so many screaming buys in energy and natural resources, it's not as if I'm desperate for something to invest in. My main challenge has been to use reasonable restraint, and keep some powder dry just in case the market has a further downside blowout. I'm not expecting that, but this is how I'm essentially hedging (slightly) my bets. Anyway, good luck if you decide to enter the lottery known as Financials!
The double funds, especially the double inverse funds don't play by the rules. There have been numerous posts on this forum about how and why they don't follow the precise double pattern you might expect. With all due respect to F-5 and his P&F charts, it's the wild wild west out there with these strange new animals like SKF and SRS in this highly volatile market.
Traditional P&F shows SKF going to zero and quickly. Somehow, I don't see that happening. Another way of looking at the chart is this:
If you bought SKF at $110 or below in the last year and had some good sense and some good luck, you've done very well. From a fundamental point of view, there aren't many people out there saying it's calm seas ahead for banks.
The last time I checked insurance was up more than banks. Private equity and hedge funds were huge. BX said they were going to start a mutual fund so smaller investors could invest in TALF. The 1st word I heard on TALF was 20 to 1 leverage, the latest was 14 to 1.
Not bad money odds to bet on toxic assets(the gov money is non-recourse loans). Well unless you happen to be wearing you're taxpayer hat.
And let's not forget the most important feature of today's move. If this mega bubble refi actually flies (I have doubts) my 2015 meltdown prediction is back in the running.
Correction. It's BLK that's proposing a toxic mutual fund. BX FIG and the like are probable to benefit. I've been playing BX recently and along with FIG its on my watch list.
Toby Smith is back into SKF UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) -- Buy Under $100; aggressive buy below $90
While the bank stocks have run up, as if investors think all of their problems are behind them, the fact remains that the banks are fundamentally broken and the pain is far from over. On March 6, we sold SKF at $254. Now, we'll buy it back for under $100 and take another ride!
My smalls did well today, gold, silver, a few bio's and chemicals. Started slow, rose well, dropped back a little. Hell, even some of my oil and gas stocks were up.
Some people don't believe the government announcement that the banks are looking rosy again and the economy is picking up. The home mortgage situation may be bottoming out, but commercial real estate and business loan problems are coming down the pike. We might start hearing about that next week. Just a hunch.
Do you use the point and figure charts on the levered ETF's? I thought you couldn't use it on the levered funds and had to go by the underlying. I'm still learning TA so any insight appreciated.
Commentary: Unlike most banks, Wells avoided the subprime market By MarketWatch Last Update: 12:30 PM ET 4/9/09
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Wells Fargo & Co.'s projected blowout quarter is helping to spur a banking rally, but the banking bulls should hold their breath -- Wells is hardly like the rest of U.S. banks.
Wells (WFC) announced Thursday profits of about $3 billion, or 55 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research are expecting, on average, profits of 31 cents a share. Wells said total revenue for the quarter to be $20 billion and would grow by an estimated 16%.
Wells shares rose more than 20% in morning trading, but more telling, the KBW Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) was down 1.5%.
Of the nation's biggest banks, Wells has operated from a position of strength because of the soundness of its balance sheet. While rivals such as Washington Mutual Inc., Countrywide Financial and Golden West aggressively loaned to home buyers, Wells kept its traditional standards for the most part. When the credit crisis was eroding those banks' balance sheets last year, Wells was improving its Tier 1 capital levels.
Wells posted a profit of $2.66 billion in 2008.
The result? Wells now stands along with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the national banks that are able play the role of rescuer as the industry goes through upheaval.
Wells' biggest problem right now is the former Wachovia Corp. franchise it bought last year for $15.1 billion. That bank was saddled with billions of dollars in mortgage losses and is partly the reason Wells had to write down $3.3 billion in the first three months of the year. The good news: Wells expects to start talking about savings and benefits from the Wachovia deal after the second quarter.
With most banks stocks flat or sinking Thursday, the Wells euphoria appears to be contained. That's appropriate, considering Wells and its profits stand out in an industry where keeping up with your neighbors means getting your fair share of government cash.
MSN Finance posted that there was a turn down for one drug as a long term treatment and another is in delay, seeking more info. No ruling on their Diabetes drug.
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the second- biggest U.S. home lender, may need $50 billion to pay back the federal government and cover loan losses as the economic slump deepens, according to KBW Inc.’s Frederick Cannon.
KBW expects $120 billion of “stress” losses at Wells Fargo, assuming the recession continues through the first quarter of 2010 and unemployment reaches 12 percent, Cannon wrote today in a report. The San Francisco-based bank may need to raise $25 billion on top of the $25 billion it owes the U.S. Treasury for the industry bailout plan, he wrote.
First-quarter net income rose 50 percent to about $3 billion, Wells Fargo said last week in announcing preliminary results that topped the most optimistic Wall Street estimates and sparked a 32 percent jump in the stock. The bank attributed the profit to a surge in mortgage originations and revenue from Wachovia Corp., acquired in December. Full results are scheduled for April 22.
“Details were scarce and we believe that much of the positive news in the preliminary results had to do with merger accounting, revised accounting standards and mortgage default moratoriums, rather than underlying trends,” wrote Cannon, who downgraded the shares to “underperform” from “market perform.” “We expect earnings and capital to be under pressure due to continued economic weakness.” ...
"First-quarter net income rose 50 percent to about $3 billion, Wells Fargo said last week in announcing preliminary results that topped the most optimistic Wall Street estimates and sparked a 32 percent jump in the stock."
Where are these boys getting the numbers from? Must be the Fed, Treasury, or somewhere up there! This "rally" is a fraud, these little trillion dollar things don't heal in a few months. I guess I've had the wool pulled over my eyes. I knew the whole thing was a house of cards but this is no game folks! These fraudsters are running our country! I think it's time to get the lead out!
Merger accounting allows assets to be recorded at fair value when the acquisition is completed. These assets can flow thru the inc statement later. I can see the assessments of these asset values changing during the period and potential gains flowing through to the inc statement.
First quarter results for the major banks will be good. This is a result of a stealth bailout thru AIG. The major banks, Deutsche Bank, JPM, Citi, Wells, etc., were all counterparties with, and thru, AIG. Thru AIG's bailout money, the feds allowed AIG to trade unprofitably with the banks so that the banks would make money on their counterparty liabilities. This quarter is an abnormality. This also resulted in AIG needing further bailout money as their loss "was more than had been anticipated". Yeah, right.