Holy Mother of ____, have you guys been looking at Agriculture? What a tear!! I'm so mad I didn't buy those call options I was looking at in the futures market.... Anyone riding this rocket? I'm waiting for a pullback before I look at anything. I'm wondering though and perhaps Spreadtrader can answer this, on a move like this, would it be prudent to do a Bull Call Spread where you buy puts and sell lower puts, then then when it takes a breather, buy calls if it still looks like it has more room to the upside? It's too late to get into calls right now....
Thoughts? (open to anyone who has a strategy for trading grains)
Is anyone currently looking to jump into the grains on a pullback? If so, how? I saw Spreadtrader's post on CNOA. Any other agriculture stocks you love?
I like CZZ December 5.00 calls for about 1.00 if the stock pulls back below the 5.00 mark. It's headed for 9.00 - 11.00.
I like MOO at 32.00, but again, if it pulls back there I'll be looking at November near-the-money calls.
Alas, CVGW got away, but I'll drown my sorrows in WVVI if it pulls back to 3.00.
I like BLERF if it pulls back to 2.75 - 3.00.
JVA also looks good at 3.00.
DDD on all of these......
Be careful not to pay too dearly for stocks here. Resist the temptation to buy with volatility moving lower. That's why I prefer call options. Options have several advantages here if you can manage the trades: 1) they are "cheap" when volatility levels are falling; 2) they give you leverage in stocks that may have already advanced from their lows; and 3) (my favorite) they effectively limit your risk in the event of a market collapse.
Take a look at the Power Shares global ag business etf PAGG, since it's inception, it's out performed our friend MOO. Possibly because it's more globally diversified? slightly less concentration in the US and Canada
Yes, that's a matter of choosing your poison. PAGG is pretty thinly traded. NEVER buy it on the open or at the market. If you look carefully at the candle chart there are many more days of a lower close with a gap higher open......a sure sign of thin trading. You don't want to buy it high and hold your breath.
The volatility is higher, I'd have to look into why. Volatility is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if it tracks MOO, but you should be aware of it. It doesn't trade options and that's why I said "choose your poison". Of course, options present their own set of risks.
Put in a limit order for PAGG at 21.00 - 21.50 but keep it on a tight leash. Sell it on a close below 20.00. In fact, that's the one time I would sell it at the market on open....if it closes below 20.00, sell it M-O-O (market-on-open.....lol) the next morning.