IF ONLY you’d bought Google, right? Not at $500 a share but at $100, where it started trading, just 3 years ago this week.
We found it, curiously, not in China but in Israel.
AND BEST OFALL, it still trades at around $7.
How We Connect
GOOGLE changed how we connect to the Web.
YOUTUBE made that connection visual. (An idea worth $1.65 billion to Google, as I’m sure you’ll recall.)
FACEBOOK changed the way we connect TO EACH OTHER via the Web. It was the next logical progression. Obvious, in retrospect.
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, high-tech’s new 23-year-old prince, just turned down a $1 billion offer from Yahoo. Rightly so: Facebook’s growth rate is 3% PER WEEK. When the company does go public, it’ll be the biggest deal since Google in 2004.
BUT YOU MAY HAVE TO WAIT YEARS for Facebook’s IPO and who knows if you’ll get a bargain.
IN THE MEANTIME Facebook just made its first acquisition. And that’s where our undiscovered instant messaging service in Israel comes in, as you’ll see. ************************ADVERTISEMENT************************
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I want you to understand why Facebook is already so successful because it reveals how the NEXT logical step can be so profitable.
Facebook essentially started as a college yearbook. Because very few freshmen know one another (remember?) this was a simple, electronic piece of social infrastructure. Almost overnight, it became the main highway of social life on campus.
It shuttled messages, it kept your friends close, it kept you in the loop and allowed you to get more out of your connections then you ever thought possible.
THIRTY-FIVE MILLION users later, this is no college frat house. I dare you: open a Facebook account this afternoon, if you haven’t already. You’ll reconnect with hundreds of friends you simply lost track of over the years. It’s addictive, though, so please finish reading THIS URGENT MESSAGE FIRST!
Zuckerberg just made his first acquisition, as I mentioned, and it is very revealing. Parakey is a tiny start-up founded by Firefox creator Blake Ross. What’s Parakey? A platform that turns the Web into a place where you keep your “stuff,” meet your friends, and stay in touch with the world on your terms.
SO HERE WE ARE, adding information-management BACK to social networking through the acquisition of Parakey. That trumps Google, right there.
THE NEXT STEP is to make this personal virtual coffee shop a manageable part of 35 million people’s lives. And that’s where our $7 stock, based in Israel comes in.
This tiny company sells emoticons, among other things like sound effects, animations, even “nudges” that shake the whole screen.
Stop! What’s an emoticon? Here’s one: :-) This is the first electronic smiley face used widely in Instant Messaging, and it dates from 1982. Here’s a more recent one: :-0 This one is the milk mustache emoticon being used by The Milk Marketing Board. Ah—yes, the possibilities are limitless! Imagine an emoticon THAT IS PERSONAL TO YOU. That would be a considerable revenue-driver, I think you’d agree.
Even better, this company ensures that no salesmen, eavesdroppers or other unsavory types enter your personal virtual coffee shop. Without this security, the Facebook lifestyle doesn’t work.
Now let’s look at the numbers.
By The Numbers Our tiny Tel-Aviv company trades on the Nasdaq at around $7 today, down from $10 after the recent sub-prime panic, but up from $4 about a year ago.
Revenues have soared from $7.4 million in 2005 to $11 million this year but earnings are only just beginning to show up. The business model is now advertising-driven as well as subscription-based. Ad revenue is growing 7-fold over last year.
There’s a big year ahead: our company is in the thick of the China Olympics, selling its anti-spam and personalization technology in Chinese language versions.
Plug a few Louis N keywords into the googlator and voila: Incredimail (MAIL) which fits his descriptions rather well--location of company, price (current/recent), and products.
Phew, I imagine Navellier must have gotten out of this one before today, because his system generally doesn't allow for holding many losers for long, but I think we can all be thankful that we didn't bite on this one really being the "next Google". In fact, they got dinged by Google today -- Google kicked them out of the AdSense program, which sent the shares down yet another 40% (they had already been down about 40% from their $7 price when Navellier teased the stock).
Hmmm ... maybe putting animated emoticons in your email isn't a world-beating business idea with a defensible niche, after all. Raise your hand if you're surprised?
Sometimes NAvallier is right (he calles ICLR when it was about $40) but other times he wants you to buy after incredible market runs. I think he puts his ads out whenhe needs to dump his and his clients stocks and needs extra volume to do this.... Withhim he is about 50/50. Soemtimes he takes off, other times you go broke. My opinion is DO NOT take a big position in his recommendations without your own research (fundamental, technical, etc). If he is such a big shot and manages a few billion dollars why is he WASTING HIS TIME on newsletters? I think its because he manages his funds straight into the toilet............
I wouldn't accuse Navellier of anything underhanded like that, he has much too good of a reputation to protect to do shortsighted trading at the expense of his subscribers, but it's certainly true that he gets some right and some wrong, and that his system picks growth stocks that have, in many cases, already had remarkable runs -- he'll be the first to tell you that he's not finding undervalued gems, he's finding growth stocks that might accelerate their growth.
I don't know whether Navellier makes more from the newsletter/advisory business or from his managed funds since none of these guys report verified subscriber numbers as far as I know, but I think he's probably quite successful with both in terms of his own income. And his new book and move to open up much of his database for free use are undoubtedly increasing the size of his email lists ... and probably significantly boosting his subscriber numbers. I would agree that I find his newsletters and his quantitative database more compelling than his own managed funds, which to my knowledge have not always performed particularly well.
Yeah, I have played the Navellier game a few times. For me, the best way to play his teases is to trade like a commodity futures trader, i.e., just cut your losses short and let your profits run.
Got burned with TRCR and DLB, but more than made that back with DAR and VIVO. Both of them have proven strong in this lousy stock market of Jan., 2008. I still can't figure out how I got suckered with TRCR. That has to be one of my dumbest mistakes in 30+ years of investing.
Hey, Mike, TRCR can't be any worse than Medifast (MED), which I bought after Navellier touted it as the purveyor of miracles. (Fortunately just a few shares.) What was I thinking? Or drinking? That stock was the sidewalk side of dogs--t, as my former Green Beret husband would say. But a learning experience. :) I think we learn more from our losers than our winners. Like a kid getting burned by the stove, rather than enjoying a lollypop.