I just looked at it technically from the chart, in my opinion not giving a good buy signal for a trade at the moment. Don't know fundamentals of it, just would not buy it (it may go up, just I see better looking trade set ups at the moment).

I think there are a couple stocks to keep your eyes on...look at GSG, XTO, DXD, QID, FXP, SDS, GLD. These have been trending for a while and are correcting. May be good buys soon. Most of these go up when the DOW gets sold off. Good buys if we get a peak in the DOW for a long term hold possibly. This market is whipsaw...


I also made some good money on MR last week. Check out the set up (MACD hit -4 and it went up $5). I think DLB may have a similar move (hope so anyway).

YZC had a good pop off of a -10 MACD. Went up over $10 a share!

REmember to trade the MACD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It will make you all more money than almost any other technique.

Good luck everyone.

I think a good Post would be if everyone can find stocks which are at low MACD's. This way we can screen some good scalps and make big $.

I am contributing DLB for this week. (No guarantees but this MACD trade is one of the best trades we can get in this business!)

Mark

On an intermediate to long term basis, SHW looks like a solid technical buy on a close above the trend line at 53.25. Interestingly, a close below 49.00 is an intermediate to long term sell. Solid support has formed on the daily chart at the round number 50.00 and the 50% Fibonacci line on the wekly chart is at about 49.20 going back five years. Aggressive traders could enter long at present levels in deference to support, but should not risk the position after a close below 49.00. In fact, you may want to wait and trade this either way. (This is just another viewpoint, which, together with about $15 could buy you.......a can of paint!)

Hey Mark,

WLP (MAC D screaming oversold)

The chart seems to show this stock should have popped hard. Is this the exception to your theory?

Good Luck

I plan on writing a book about my "3 indicator system" and puttign it up for sale one day. Until then, let me answer some questions.

Spreadtrader: you said that to trade AUY is "very risky." I want to understand where this is coming from. AUY will be a good trade when/if all the indicators come into alignment. If they do, I will post my entry price here along with the number of shares I purchased so you all can follow me through this trade -winner or not. I trade an account with a 6 figures so a "large position" to other traders may be a "small position" to me. The size of the position does not matter anyway, what we are looking for is the highest % change no matter the #of shares/account size. I think AUY will be a good trade for $1-$5 possibly, but not UNTIL MACD touches near -1. If it doesn't go there, I will skip the trade altogether. You are in 2,000 shares. I think you got in early (I don't know your price) but I wish you luck as well.


JesusIS LORD: just because a MACD is at a bottom DOES NOT MEAN we can just go out and take a buy. When a stock gets obliterated like WLP has and takes a large GAP DOWN, all bets are OFF!!!! In my opinion it is TOO RISKY!! I wait for a more stable stock which has a MACD approaching a new even # low (Example- look at MR last week)-That IS A GOOD TRADE SETUP!! Some times a huge drop down CAN HAVE a huge pop up (BSC 2 weeks ago popping from @$2 to $10 in one week is a SICK TRADE 500% return, but not worth the risk in my opinion.

Remember: TRADING is an ART, NOT a SCIENCE. IF IT WAS a SCIENCE, then a COMPUTER SYSTEM would be able to PRINT MONEY. TRADING takes luck, patience, perseverance, ability to take a loss, ability to stay confident, and constant learning.

Good luck to everyone this week. I am long DLB. Waiting for AUY to drop more (hopefully).

Mark

Mark,

As long as you're quoting me, this is what I actually said in a private post to you:

RE: AUY

I hold a small position in Yamana, but I'm risking nowhere near $5,000 -$7,000 a point. Of course, you may have capital to burn and that's fine. But what you are suggesting is VERY risky, regardless of how the chart looks. This stock has gapped down 4 times in the last 2 weeks. (Based on the chart Yamana may drop down at least to the 12.70 to 14.00 range before this correction is over, as I've said in another thread. In fact, the stock would still be in an uptrend if it dropped to 10.30)

Do you understand why options are probably a better trading vehicle for what you're suggesting here? You're looking for this trade to work within the week or so after you enter, yes? April options don't expire until 4/18. The "ask" price on the April 15.00 call is .65. There looks to be decent liquidity in that strike price.

You could buy 5,000 calls (50 contracts)for $3,250 plus commission. That way, every point over 15.00 is $5,000 profit, just like holding 5,000 shares (you do have to subtract the cost of the options to obtain your net). BUT the very most you can lose on the trade is $3,250 total, not $5,000 per point. In fact, if you watched the trade and it went against you straightaway, you could sell the options immediately and probably save a fair amount of the $3,250.

I assume you trade this with a 5 to 30 minute chart?

Sometimes options are the better way to go if enough volume is there to get a fill; and it would seem that this is one of those instances.

Good luck with it.

Spreadtrader,
i agree w/ you 100%, thats why i bought the $14 call , at .65 ..it is currently (12pm est) .80 - gold is taking a beating today, and has been correcting down for some time now, but i dont think it will go much lower ( maby $850 ?? ) maby someone who follows gold a little closer can chime in on this .I would like to hear some info. But when gold turns around , so will this stock,.
Will it happen before 4/18 , I dont know, but i'm "Betting" so.( thats why they say there is "Risk")
I'm looking for it to get back to $15 within a couple weeks,.
GL guys

I have a question for you technical whizzes. (I'm coming around to believing -- a little -- in those durn charts.) Would you take a look at the very interesting charts (I'm going to give you the link) comparing the Baltic Dry Index to various other indices and tell me what wisdom you derive from it. I'm trying to decide whether the recent uptick in the transportation sector is significant -- and indeed what it might signify for commodities and the market as a whole. Hey, I know that's like looking for the key to all mythologies, but I know you guys can deliver! (Especially spreadtrader.)

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

It's bulk shipping spot prices. Mostly coal, iron ore, heavy loose stuff shipping companies. I have some egle that I picked up when it came out. Most pay good dividends. Coal is in demand due to South Africa electrical problems.
Trying to calculate what world trade will be doing in a few months is anyones call.

My opinion on AUY is that it can pop up tomorrow (but I would NOT TAKE the BUY yet!) because the gap down today may get filled back up. I would personally feel a little more comfortable with a BUY if prices went to maybe @$13 and I saw %R drop down to touch -100 again, MACD give evidence of a slight curve horizontally, and RSI dip a little lower.

Good luck.

If these parameters are met I will take a position and give you guys my entry, etc.

I don't suggest people get in positions using these techniques if they are inexperienced or jump in based on "emotions". I don't understand what signal you guys used to get you to pull the trigger and establish positions early in AUY? Please explain what made you get in at your price levels so I can see the understanding behind it. I see a buy 8 days ago when %R touched -100 but that is it?

LET me give you the EASIEST TRADE to tAKE in YOUR LIFE....

ALMOST ANYTIME %R touches -100 and you "buy" that day and sell later you will make money.LOOK at the chart of AUY yourselves. IT worked about 95% of the time.
15 out of @16 trades.

GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADING
MARK

Mark,

Just some fatherly advice if I may. Be careful with that "feel" for the market knowing what the market may do by TA stuff. Your good mind may get mis understood. The indicators that you point to are only basic. TA is only one of many tools. Tell us that your analysis gave you your 2008 picks. NUFF SAID.

Be careful with your simplistic "system" and "feel" for TA that you speak of. I think you may be stepping off the base not knowing that the pitcher sees.

Said with honor and good intentions.

Thanks for your explanation Mark; and I'm glad to see that you got some of your money back in MR.

You have warned people who visit this site that you essentially trade by "feel" through your "trading is an art" statement; and that's appropriate and commendable. People should heed that warning, especially if they are inclined to try to follow your "recommendations".

I think I'll wait for your book to be published.........

Regarding AUY, I told you in private that "I hold a small position in Yamana". You then responded in public saying "you are in 2,000 shares. I think you got in early (I don't know your price) but I wish you luck as well." Thanks for wishing me luck, but I dislike being misquoted, especially about any positions that I may (or may not) hold in the markets. Therefore, I posted what I had actually said to you.

Last evening you asked: "Please explain what made you get in (Yamana) at your price levels so I can see the understanding behind it". The explanation is simple, but tedious and boring. I have a full time career, PLUS I actively trade commodities and dabble in Forex. I'm trying to learn stock fundamentals at the same time. There are a lot of stocks, but I've satisfied myself that Yamana is a "good" company in a sector that I believe is going places. Although I presently don't like the chart (and have said so here), I purchased a token position in Yamana so that it would not slip from my cluttered radar screen. I've done this with a number of other stocks; and I intend to buy more when the chart looks better. I'm presently down $166 in the "position". It's as simple as that. But it's actually more complicated because it goes to the heart of the difference between TRADING (which I do in other markets) and INVESTING (which I'm trying to do with stocks).

Best wishes and good luck to you.

Mark

Is batting .800 the Same as the "Money Tree" program? Couldn't find even 1 batting on ebay!


bob

Looking for a buy in FXP also AUY soon...........

M

3 year on FXP?

Mark,

When you say all 3 must line up "exactly", how do you see this? Hold a ruler up to the chart? On the daily. 1 yr. charts, it's hard to see the exact alignment!


bob

I'm sorry, but what's the point of looking at a 3 year chart for a stock that's only traded 3-4 months?

Hey Steelgtr,

To check if all three indicators line up exactly on BIGCHARTS, I set the parameters as Mark directed and choose "INTERACTIVE CHART".

I then click the mouse once and a vertical ruler line can be dragged along the chart to any day and see the exact date. closing price and indicator values for each day. It is very usefull for lining up the indicators.

Good Luck.

I am also reading a book by Larry Williams. Batting .800. Good read so far. Larry is actually warning against day trading and scalping for points in the early chapters.

Hey Jesus...
auy broke 15.40 back on 4/7 . The 6.6. may have been " the biggest move ...." but it was pointed out that the indicators lined up , back on 4/1 ... that was when i got in.. it hit 15 and change on 4/7 ( when i sold..)
actually the retracement was textbook. The stock started down at @ $17 - then bottoned at just below 14 (4/1 ) that was when it was pointed out in this thread) a 33% retracement is typical.. if you do the math, that works out to $15.40 (or close) so that is what i used for my exit. I entered within $.20 of the bottom and exited within $.20 of "the top" (of the bounce) ... That little $1.40 move was good enugh for me to catch a DOUBLE of my money...
So to answer your question, the "quick" move or the "swing " trade was about TWO WEEKS ago lol .

Hey Farley 5.

Based on your reference chart. Would you think its safe to project a target price of 17.5 - 18 by end of year?

If you continue the blue trend line those projected target prices are conservative.

What do you think?

DLB made a sick return today like I said it would. I also said to stay away from auy it will drop more like it is. the best place for new money right now if you want to "invest" and not "trade" is in GFA. Buy GFA and hold for a few months and you will make money. I am currently looking at WX for a buy soon as a trade since it is technically oversold on a 3 yr chart. This trade "WX" is just for a quick scalp. MR may be a good play based on earnings report next Tues I believe. Wait until then. Good luck everybody!

Mark

Ps. Watch sohu for a sell coming up for a scalp. It is on a rampage and if it continues to get exceedingly overbought then some put options/shorts will make sick returns

Mark - What are you smoking on WX? My kids would love some. Here's the supply and demand for WX:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=WX,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Would you share with the group and let us know why this will ever go up? Thanks in advance.

Some top analysts are still recommending SOHU. And some good sources that I trust are putting out a buy signal on Chinese stocks. I just read an interesting interview with the Chinese CEO of Baidu who says that the next innovations on the Internet are probably going to come from China. Already they have more Internet users than the U.S. I wouldn't short SOHU, as Marks says, unless you're very careful. (Actually I wouldn't short it at all, personally.) We can always count on a big dip from Chinese stocks, even on their way up. Right now I like Perfect World (PWRD). Worth checking out. Also AirMedia (AMCN), which just issued an eye-popping report. (I've mentioned this one before.) Check it out at http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/21/214/214947/items/291063/2007_20F.pdf. You're a captive audience at the airport, and looks like they're everywhere you turn in China's airports. They have entertainment program interspersed with the ads as well. Of course, folks might not be inclined to think positively about products while their flights are delayed, etc. As always, Chinese stocks require extreme caution.

made a good amount on WX the past few days. Liquidated the position (although it may go up more who knows?) Sohu had nice drop today as well.

I want you guys to realize that these trades are "scalps". High percentage get in and get out trades (not long term investments!)

The next trade set ups I am eyeing are a short on PCX soon, short on ZEUS, possible BUY back on SOHU, LVS buy possibly, if CHK keeps going up I will short when they take profits then possibly re-enter a long position.CHK, MR, GFA I think are the only "long term holds" I would currently suggest.

Good Luck

Mark

farley, the trade I took on WX had nothing to do with any supply/demand etc. It was based on technical analysis of a chart for a scalp.

I dabbled in day trading but admittingly didn't know what I was doing. Thought I did, but I guess not. Took a beating, expensive lesson but I oddly had fun. But that endouver was thankfully short-lived. lol

Scalping points was tough. Hit and miss. More misses than hits.