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Sleuth Challenges and Solutions: Tobin Smith Changewave LED LSGP

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    • CommentAuthornewshidden
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007 edited
     Report Post# 1
    • CommentAuthorlhuppcap
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007
     Report Post# 2
    It looks like it could be this one.

    Unfortunately I did not pull the trigger on his Colour Kinetics (CLRK) pick that I came across last summer. Just too many stock ideas to put ones money towards. Another one I missed.
    • CommentAuthorlazycritic
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007
     Report Post# 3
    I can't believe it is LSGP after reading it's 10-Q and 10-K. LSGP has horrible sales growth and don't even do the manufacturing themselves. I didn't find anything about a deal with Philips either. And LSGP is somewhat too scary for me...huge losses, huge debts...
    • CommentAuthorlazycritic
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007
     Report Post# 4
    Here's what he says about it:

    I read all the reports on the Color Kinetics acquisition and no one mentioned that this company -- my favorite company in our Microcap Investor service right now, is the biggest supplier -- as a matter of fact, the only supplier -- of white-light LED bulbs to Philips.

    They're moving at a $20 million sales rate for 2008 that could easily go to $40 million. How? With a very simple acquisition or two, or just by seeing Philips ramp up their LED production. Now let's take 10 times that $40 million in sales -- that gives us a $400 million valuation.


    I don't get it...the supplier of LED lights to Philips is, I would think, Lumileds.

    http://www.lumileds.com/corporate/

    But they are a subsidiary of Philips.

    There is no way that LSGP is on track to $20 million in sales.
    • CommentAuthorlhuppcap
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007
     Report Post# 5
    Philips also recently bought a small public LED company called TIR Systems. Looks like they want to dominate the market.

    http://www.lighting.philips.com/gl_en/news/press/lighting_company_news/archive_2007/press_philips_tir.php?main=global&parent=4390&id=gl_en_news&lang=en
    • CommentAuthornewshidden
    • CommentTimeJun 21st 2007
     Report Post# 6
    its LSPG and here is the phillips release

    http://www.lsgc.com/press/pr070122.pdf
    • CommentAuthorlazycritic
    • CommentTimeJun 22nd 2007 edited
     Report Post# 7
    Looks like Toby's stretching the truth a bit then...although LSPG did say that it had 700k in unfilled purchase orders in it's Q1 10-Q, along with its 138k in Q1 revenues. 26% gross margin and, of course, significantly negative net margin (-980%?).

    Anyone else thinking about pulling the trigger on this one?

    LED lights are damn expensive, and I worry that the market will be saturated quickly as early adopters buy them and the rest of the world doesn't. But I might as well ride the momo...
    • CommentAuthorphl
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2007
     Report Post# 8
    For info on LED's, go to : ledsmagazine.com. An online and print publication. I bt a few shares of LSPG. Don't know if I trust Tobin a lot, but he's made a couple of good picks along with more not so good ( a constant barrage of teasers).
    • CommentAuthorREP
    • CommentTimeJun 27th 2007
     Report Post# 9
    Tobin is suggesting CREE now that CLRK was bought. I missed CLRK also.
    REP
    • CommentAuthorlhuppcap
    • CommentTimeJun 29th 2007
     Report Post# 10
    I had mentioned above a Canadian company TIR which like CLRK was bought by Phillips.

    One other Canadian stock in this area is called Carmanah Technologies (CMH). It of course I have on my watch list which probably means like CLRK I will watch it go up and be bought out. Unlike LSGP it has revenue and seems to have some solid revenue growth.

    We will see what happens.
    • CommentAuthorlazycritic
    • CommentTimeJun 29th 2007
     Report Post# 11
    Yeah, I don't really like LSGP...way too much debt compared to assets, and unprofitable. It looks like it's teetering on the edge of collapse.
  14.  Report Post# 12
    LSGP hot today but not because of Tobin, big gap and run. Any ideas what happened today?
    • CommentAuthorHexdek16
    • CommentTimeJul 9th 2007
     Report Post# 13
    Turtle Lights? Ok, kidding there...........no news on the ticker, but the volume is spiked going to have to watch the news after the game today. Didn't have enough time to study this one over the weekend.........Regards.
    • CommentAuthormav1
    • CommentTimeJul 9th 2007
     Report Post# 14
    LSGP was recommended by Mike Murphy and people jumped on it - that's the reason it spiked today (price/volume). I looked into this company at depth. a couple of weeks ago and did not exactly like it based on several things. The float is too big, the revenues are nothing to speak of, the products are expensive, loosing money so far (unprofitable). I don't know what Toby and Mike see in this "little gem", but as far as I concerned, as an investor, I would not put my money into this stock. Cheers.
    • CommentAuthorHexdek16
    • CommentTimeJul 9th 2007
     Report Post# 15
    Look at the 10 day chart w/volume (I wish I knew how to cut & paste it) MSN has some simple charts that make this clear. I'll try to post a link to it at the end. You'll see a high volume spike on the 5th that's the "Buy In" next the 'tout' goes out with the weekend for the sucker play to develop. Monday you get the reprice & the "spike" while allot of little guys enter into the 'Lemming Trap'. Now the trap is set all that is left is the double top and a quick slide to the nether region. Maybe I'm wrong on this one. I don't think so. Let's see where this trades on the 19th.

    Here's the Link: http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=LSGP

    Regards.
  18.  Report Post# 16
    Mike Murphy reco'ed it almost 2 weeks ago.........did he recommend it again today on a different service that he provides?
    • CommentAuthorHexdek16
    • CommentTimeJul 9th 2007
     Report Post# 17
    Sorry I wasn't pointing fingers at Mike, I'm sure he's on the level, upstanding & everything associated with that. I did not mean by my analysis to disparage him or any individual in particular. I was just highlighting what tends to be a 'trend' in investment newsletter recommendations. The same could be applied to the recommendations of that TV guy who use to be on radio/podcast (I don't have TV) Jim Cramer - his recommendations tend to 'spike' and then the shorts take it to the street & the common "Joe Hope" who bought the "Tip" but didn't do the homework. Hope that's "clearer" than I originally stated it? Regards.
    • CommentAuthorlazycritic
    • CommentTimeJul 9th 2007 edited
     Report Post# 18
    I don't know that I'd call Tobin Smith or any of the other newsletter guys P&Ders, but they can be fooled. Tobin Smith reccomended Xethanol, which was covered by Sharesleuth here.

    It went from $12.50 to its current price of $1.73.

    Similarly, I laughed when I read Quantum Investor's report and recommendation of Gofish (http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3AGOFH). Down from $5.95 to to $1.04. I'm just disappointed that I didn't have a margin account to short it at the time.

    Similarly, LSGP is a piece of crap on the edge of bankruptcy. Invest at your own risk.

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