Our goal is simple: To give you access to unique options trading strategies designed to increase your profits two, three, even four times over your current rate of return - with a shot at gains of 300% to 500% in just a few short weeks.
It seems that if I do "opposite" of what he recommends I will make a lot of money.
I assume that you take ALL of his trades (if you're following his "system" strictly). What is your win/loss ratio on trades using this guy? (Many people don't understand that you could lose money on a high percentage [most] of the trades yet still be profitable overall.) How frequently does he trade every month (5 trades per month, 10, more?
Does he use multiple strategies or only one? (Straight purchases? Straight sales? Spreads? Spreads with naked legs? Covered calls? Other more complex strategies?)
Does he risk everything invested on each trade, or does he advise exiting after incurring a certain percentage or dollar loss? In other words, on an option that costs $110 per contract, does he say "risk 50% percent of it"? Does he say "risk $50 of it"? Or does he use some other risk stop, or none at all?
Does he tell you WHEN to SELL or liquidate profitable trades? If so, does he tell you to exit the same day he wants you to exit or the day before? In other words, does he say "exit now" or does he say "exit tomorrow on the open"?
Do you have any difficulty getting fills on his recommended trades? In other words, any issues with option liquidity?
If I remember correctly, he has one recommendation per week. I took EVERY trade just as he spelled it out, I don't pick and chose. He does use different strategies and I've used whatever he is recommending. I'm not sure what his money management strategy is, but I only allocate about 20% of my portfolio to these types of services. He does not tell you when to sell, but leaves that up to you. I never have trouble with liquidity.
I thought his service was a joke... i tried the trial for about 5 minutes... that was about how long it took me to do an average of his win/losses.. i consider myself a beginner at trading options... and my averages CRUSH his.. so anyway, i changed my sub. over to jon Najarian's options from the same site ( optionszone) and optionmonster. His is WAY better than Ken Trester's . I have been watching his picks.. his averages seem o.k. and he at least gives good alerts and trade signals.. ..He does alot of spreads . I have never traded one of his picks for real money yet, and dont know if i will . These wre the first real newsletters i've ever tried, and i have to say i am not impressed. I have 90 days but i'm sure i will not pay for the service.. I really like the websites , on option monster, they have a chart with index option action with volume . The site also has some good info and articles.. just my $ .02
Stop obsessing over win/lose averages. Learn about the measure of success that really matters: the Expectation Value for a system. Many small losses can be accepted if the occasional huge wins pay back in spades.
Example: if your win rate is 30% with a return of 70%, and your lose rate is 70% with a return of -10%, your expectation value is:
EV = .30 x .70 + .70 x (-.10) = .14 (or 14%)
In other words, your rate of return would be 14% on average, so you would be winning over the long run even when losing 70% of your trades.
The classic problem of how to accomplish this at the heart of developing a trading system that works. Limiting losses while letting profits run is a familiar mantra, but the result of doing so is demonstrated clearly by the above example: you can lose (ie be WRONG) most of the time and still make money.
Limiting losses is the key. With stocks, you set stops, cut bait when the trade turns against you, and move on to the next one. Letting profits run is also key! You need those bigger wins in order to make up for the frequent losses.
The very surprising results of designing various trading systems is explained quite nicely in "The Way of the Turtle" by Curtis Faith.