Another Buy From the Conviction List (ASEI)

Well, in the month or so since I posted my four-company "conviction buy" list, I've had the opportunity to buy two of those companies at even lower prices. The first was Gol Linhas Aereas a few weeks ago, and the second is American Science and Engineering (ASEI), which I picked up additional shares of this morning.

While I have been considering adding to my ASEI holdings for several months, today was the first time that I saw a stock price that I couldn't refuse. On no significant news that I'm aware of, the shares dipped by close to 5% today, and I picked up my additional shares at $48.09. This brings my average cost up to $46.55 (though I actually made my first of many purchases of ASEI shares above today's level, at $52 last year).

So why is the share price going down today? I have no real idea. It could just be a reaction to the fact that the order they announced, for $2 million worth of ZBVs, was pretty puny in the grand scheme of things ... or maybe there's some big institutional selling that I haven't seen yet.

As regards the ongoing announcement of contract wins -- their backlog of orders is still in the neighborhood of $100 million, so I don't much care what rules they follow to determine which orders to announce in press releases (they noted on a conference call a while back that they no longer announce all contracts, but will announce "more significant" ones). Generally, the ones they announce are larger than this of late, or are for "new" business with different countries or agencies, but I won't read too much into the tea leaves here.

I see no reason to doubt the long term performance of the company going forward -- their earnings will undoubtedly remain very lumpy, but in the big picture I expect that lumpiness to average out to continued significant growth. Not always year over year growth for any given quarter, since they occasionally have blowout quarters with big orders that won't be replicated 12 months later, as we've seen recently, but certainly growth writ large.

And the shares reflect some severe pessimism that is largely due, I think, to the lumpiness of earnings and the fact that management doesn't give much in the way of guidance and gets somewhat bristly on the conference calls when asked to do so (largely because they don't necessarily know what quarters will bring which business). Some good articles have been published on Seeking Alpha regarding ASEI, including a note about a positive analyst note last month and a more recent detailed analysis of their conference calls.

The PE ratio of 18 going forward is based on what I think are pessimistic numbers, but the PE of 20 for the trailing year could certainly be interpreted as a bargain given the company's growth potential.

I focus on a few things:

1, the big CAARS program for detecting nuclear contraband at US ports is in its infancy, and ASEI stands to potentially open up a new very lucrative line of business if it is successful. There is $2.5 billion in contracts to fight for in this business, and I expect ASEI to get at least a strong portion of that.

2, on a related front, the Omniview Gantry is the poster child for container scanning at ports -- if political pressure can continue to push for scanning more of the cargo that enters US ports, this product is the logical candidate to be rolled out.

3, the death knell for the Z-Backscatter Van, ASEI's core product, has been sounded multiple times -- but the orders keep coming in. I am encouraged by the ongoing development of the "ruggedized" ZBV for harsh conditions, and by the ongoing domestic adoption of this tool at border crossings and other security checkpoints.

and 4, there exist plenty of upside opportunities where expectations are fairly low -- including drive-through scanners, package scanners and personnel scanners. They had an order earlier this year for the Z-Portal system that can be used at drive-through checkpoints, and it's possible that this could build into a larger business. The package scanning products are in use in some government buildings and might be a more reliable product than the ones used in most airports and similar secure areas, and the personnel scanning, which is being tested by the FAA at one airport, is another potential piece of business. I expect to see some eventual success from the package scanning product line and perhaps from the portal drive-through line, but would guess that the personal scanners probably won't get a wide rollout due to time and privacy concerns (the scan takes a short time, and it reveals a lot about the human body, even in "privatized" mode).

So I still see plenty of long-term upside for this reasonably-priced technology leader that feeds a growing need for port, building and mobile security scanning -- especially as budgets for Iraq and Homeland Security remain on a growth trend. It should also be noted that as of last month there was a big short position -- close to 20% of the float -- so that might mean either I'm misinterpreting the company's future or there's a possibility of a nice short squeeze. I could certainly be wrong, but I want to stick with this one for a few years and see if my guesses play out.

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Are the Democrats good for ASEI?

American Science and Engineering (FARO) might just get a boost from the Democrats in Congress -- specifically, from their "first 100 hours" push to implement "all" of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission.

Why is that?

Well, one of the specific recommendations of the Commission was to plug the very serious security hole that exists for virtually all cargo entering the United States -- very little of that cargo is ever physically inspected, which opens up lots of possibilities for terrorists to smuggle weapons (or themselves) into the country. And stories have popped up everywhere today -- from the Christian Science Monitor mentioning port and container security, and the AP on expanded Homeland Security grants to high-risk areas, including ports. Ports and containers seem to be getting a fair share of attention right now, perhaps because there are some clear things that could be done successfully right away, given the money.

And ASEI is one of the significant companies providing products to help with cargo inspection for ports and personal and baggage inspection for site security.

Now, there may not be a material impact on ASEI if and when the bills in question get signed and become law (and I expect they will -- who wants to veto more security?), thanks to the several major competitors who share this space ... but the potential is there.

American Science and Engineering has had a nice six months, recovering somewhat from their difficult quarters when estimates and actual results were quite divorced from one another, and in the wrong direction. Big orders for their flagship product, the Z-Backscatter Van, and contracts for new product development in port security as well as some port orders of their massive container-scanning Omniview Gantry, and the testing of their SmartCheck by the TSA for airport security all have restored some investor confidence in the company.

But the future seems extraordinarily bright to me, much brighter than one would expect from a small company trading at only a modest premium to the overall market (trailing PE of a bit over 20 at the moment).

I've written several times about ASEI in the past, with more detail on the programs mentioned above and their potential (click on the ticker below for all my writeups), and I continue to hold shares. I may buy more if the price continues to be reasonable and Congress continues to push money for increased security.

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What a Difference a Call Makes (ASEI)

American Science and Engineering (ASEI) continues to keep investors on their toes -- they released earnings this morning that seemed a little disappointing, which brought shares down by about 10% immediately ... then, during the conference call at 11am today, assuaged whatever concerns folks may have had and watched the shares recover dramatically during the course of the call.

The shares closed at $56.01 yesterday, after a nice run following their recent contract wins, and opened this morning after the earnings press release at $51, then dropped almost immmediately to $50. The shares recovered throughout the earnings call to get back to near $55 as I write.

The reasons for the decline were not surprising -- their EPS number was, depending on whether analysts were taking into account options or not (options have generally run 15-20 cents per share per quarter), either a slight beat or a dramatic miss, but more importantly the sales were down. There was a 40% decrease in sales YOY (from their highest-ever quarter), and a 1% decrease from the prior quarter, along with increased selling costs as they're recruiting more salespeople to drive overseas sales and hiring more engineers to work on some big new contracts.

CEO Anthony Fabiano addressed the weaker sales in the call: "We expected higher revenue in Q2, but unfortunately the timing worked against us" -- they record revenue when the customer accepts the product, so a delay in their recent huge Z-Backscatter Van (ZBV) order pushed a lot of the sales out of the quarter. Those sales will still be there, and will strengthen the next couple quarters.

And to back that assertion up, there's an all-time high in backlog thanks to $87 million in bookings this quarter (it's now at $117 million), which is by far the most important thing for this company -- they're making the deals, and keeping existing customers very happy. Much of that backlog should turn into sales within the next year or so.

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ZBVs and sales and service contracts on same continue to be the major sales driver, as their three other big products (Omniview Gantry scan, SmartCheck, and Gemini package check) are slowly getting traction, and in some cases hitting minor delays for various reasons.

R&D was down signficantly by more than 30% in the quarter, which also frightened some investors, but that should really be a one-quarter phenomenon forced by the reallocation of resources to bid on the CARS program that they ultimately won. Management emphasized that they don't see any long term reduction of R&D, and in fact they just got an R&D contract to "ruggedize" the ZBV for harsh terrain (they're pretty basic large vans/panel trucks now), which might significantly expand the market.

The marketplace is certainly still ripe with opportunity for AS&E -- they expect to sell significant quantities of ZBVs and other products to both the DOD and NATO in the years ahead, even after the record-setting ZBV order they got at the end of the last quarter. And regardless of the guesses that are put out by analysts from time to time about the top of the ZBV market, there doesn't seem to be any indication that they've come close to saturating the market. Management did note that the DOD focus on Iraq may mean that other, smaller missions and locations aren't getting the funding they need to get their requested ZBVs at the moment, which ought to change over time.

The company also provided updates on all their major products during the call.

They were quite excited about a new US Customs order, since the Customs ZBVs were targeted for smuggling and border protection, which indicates an expansion of demand -- AS&E has very few sales into border security just yet, but it's a huge potential market for them.

Omniview Gantry, their big container/truck scanning system, is getting good traction -- they've made four sales now, though they're finding that this cargo scanning market is extremely competitive.

The Containerized Advanced Automated Radiography System (CARS) nuclear detection contract that they announced a couple months ago was a huge win -- WMD detection is a targeted growth area for ASEI, and this is really helping them to break into this sector.

Gemini is getting a lot of attention for building security, and can easily replace most of the inferior airport and facility package checkpoints -- there was some buzz amongst the analysts about a possible big for Gemini in airports, but AS&E has always been careful to note that they're not pushing in that direction because of the dramatic amount of competition in that market ... and they didn't reiterate those concerns this time, which might mean nothing or might mean that they have a real airport luggage scanning opportunity.

SmartCheck's TSA pilot is still delayed, but they are continuing to demonstrate it internationally and have made at least one sale.

This is a company that I would never try to trade for the short term, because of the variable scheduling of these big contracts, the lump earnings, and the uncertainty of "making the numbers" in any given quarter would give me heartburn ... the sales they just made to Customs, for example, followed very protracted testing by the department over two years.

But in my book, things are continuing on pace for ASEI -- and I only regret that I wasn't prescient enough to pick up some new shares at this morning's $50 bottom. I continue to hold ASEI shares that I purchased at $52, $47 and $37.

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Should we sniff or look? (ASEI)

There was a low-profile article in the Washington Post today entitled TSA May Shift Funds To Improve Airports' X-Ray Technology -- and every time I see another article like this, which points out the flaws in current screening technologies, I itch to make another purchase of shares in American Science and Engineering (ASEI).

The latest issue covered in this article is that the explosive sniffers airports have rolled out over the last year or two are not working very well -- if you're not familiar with these, they're the small machines that sit off to the side at the security checkpoint, and TSA screeners rub your luggage with some sort of little swab, then put that swab into the machine so it can "sniff" out any explosive materials you may have come into contact with. Apparently, the machines work great in the lab but get clogged up with dust and dirt in busy airports and don't work so well after a little while.

[Correction: after a reader pointed out my error, I should tell you that the problem machines right now are the "puffers", not the "sniffers" -- the end result is the same, but actually perhaps more significant for ASEI, since the puffers and ASEI's SmartCheck are both aimed at people, not luggage. Puffers are the machines that detect explosive residue on people, sniffers are the ones that sniff the swabs that have been wiped on luggage. Apologies, I read the Post article too fast and made the wrong assumption.]

So the TSA is considering halting purchases of those machines, and instead upgrading the x-ray scanners to get a higher quality image that will help them scope out liquids or gels inside carry-on luggage.

There are tons of companies that produce x-ray scanners -- according to the article, at least 20 companies are involved in the preliminary testing right now, so this doesn't necessarily indicate that ASEI is going to get any additional business from the TSA for luggage scanning.

And in fact, ASEI has noted in the past that they're not pursuing that market particularly aggressively, largely because of the massive amount of competition and the limited opportunity they have to make their machines stand out in the crowd.

It's possible that that strategic decision will change as the TSA pushes for more capable scanners -- after all, it's hard to argue against the supremacy of a dual backscatter/standard x-ray for identifing all kinds of contraband and explosives.

But even if it doesn't change, I think the continuing focus on security screening has to be good for ASEI -- their current hope for TSA business is the SmartCheck personnel scanning devices that check people, not bags, but their Gemini package screening machines, now in use at some high security locations like the White House and Supreme Court, are certainly capable of doing this work as well.

None of this means that any additional business is necessarily coming AS&E's way right away -- the most significant near term news would be news about any serious testing of Gemini or SmartCheck by the TSA, since that gives a potential market of hundreds of US airports, but the TSA has been promising to test SmartCheck for most of the past year and as far as I know has not yet done so.

But it is yet another indication of the pressure being put on security officials everywhere -- not just in Homeland Security or just in the US, but around the world -- to use the best technology available to improve and automate screening procedures to close the current massive gaps. And whether you're talking about cargo security (as with AS&E's recent radiation screening contract), mobile scanning for borders or car bombs (using the Z-Backscatter Van, which continues to rack up record sales), personal screening, or package screening, ASEI has a strong argument that they can provide the most capable systems in the world with their patented backscatter technologies.

Earnings are lumpy with the big and uneven orders they typically see from government buyers, but it's starting to look as though every dip due to a relatively soft quarter of orders has been a buying opportunity ... I don't know if we'll see more of that in the near future, but I continue to consider adding to my position.

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ASEI gets the orders we were waiting for (ASEI)

During the most recent earnings call, Anthony Fabiano, CEO of American Science and Engineering (ASEI), promised that there were big orders from the US government likely by the end of the year ... but that he couldn't yet disclose anything about them.

Today, the news came out on two large contracts -- and if he had disclosed anything about these, I think I can guarantee that the stock would not have fallen after the last earnings release. (I bought shares both before and after the last earnings announcement, FYI)

ASEI is a security company with proprietary X-ray backscatter technology, and they sell a variety of products for detecting weapons, contraband, and other unwelcome materials on persons and in luggage, trucks, cars, packages or cargo containers. Their primary product right now is the Z-Backscatter van (ZBV), a mobile backscatter X-ray system built into a van. And their primary customer for that product, though overseas sales have also been solid, has been the US Government, which is deploying them both domestically and in hotspots around the world.

The fear has been that ASEI has saturated the market for ZBVs, at least with their largest customer, and that none of their other products are yet ready to make up the slack for potentially declining ZBV sales.

But today's news makes that fear seem silly -- today, ASEI confirmed that the US Government placed its largest order yet for ZBVs, $42 million for 36 vans.

So that's huge.

But potentially even larger is the more surprising announcement that came out today: ASEI is sharing a huge federal contract for a new nuclear detection system for cargo containers with SAIC and L-3. Huge for them, at least, since ASEI is a small cap company with a market cap well under $5oo million and sales in the last twelve months of just about $160 million.

This new contract, which likely relies somewhat on ASEI's current gantry scan product for scanning containers as well as their existing radiation scanning tools, is much bigger than the already quite large ZBV deal: 1.35 billion dollars split across seven years, with the first couple of years designated for designing and testing a prototype and the potential for each company to get $450 million if they develop a working prototype.

And if Congress passes a law requiring this kind of scanning for all cargo, which as a citizen I think is long overdue, I think we can assume that this will be just the tip of the iceberg -- it would take a massive infusion of cash to extend this program to every single port in the country.

So, the lesson? Maybe we should listen when Anthony Fabiano tells us he's optimistic and sees great growth and some big orders coming their way. I'm actually quite surprised that ASEI is seeing only a small bump of 4% or so today, and I picked up a few additional shares at $46.70 this morning.

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ASEI Earnings Opportunity

It's just as well that I chose to split my buying of ASEI into a few parcels, since I clearly have no talent for making short term predictions.

American Science and Engineering released earnings this morning, and the market again was wildly disappointed -- a little deja vu from last quarter. The earnings per share number of .41 was a bit depressed by a very high tax bill and the options expensing, but sales were down by something on the order of 20% from the year-ago quarter.

I may be coating this with too much optimism, but I'm not terribly worried. I took advantage of a too mercurial market to fill out my position a little bit more this morning at $37.45, so my cost basis has now been lowered to about $44. That doesn't look so good today, but I think it will in the years to come.

The good news from ASEI is that the orders keep piling in -- lots more international orders for the vans, some indications that the orders for the bigger gantry scanning machines are starting to come in, and new products for package and personal scanning that have large markets to address ... all of which should help lessen their dependence on the US government. The upshot of that is that they reported a big increase to the backlog, which now stands at $63 million.

ASEI may keep going down, but I think the fundamentals of the business and the industry point to a much rosier future in the long run, even if the nature of big ticket government purchasing means that progress from quarter to quarter will be very lumpy, indeed.

More detail on my past analysis of ASEI here, here and here.

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More Security in an Insecure World (ASEI)

I've been wanting to add to my new position in American Science and Engineering (ASEI), and I decided to hedge my bets a little bit by picking up a few shares today before the earnings call tomorrow morning -- that way, if the earnings disappoint I'll still have something to look forward to in filling in my position further at a lower price.

ASEI took a tumble last time it released earnings, and I think this earnings announcement is a pretty good candidate to help them make up some of that fall. Opinions differ on why they fell short of estimates last time around, but management contends that if you consider their performance ex-items they would have actually beat the analyst estimates handily.

I'm no accountant, so I can't tell you whether or not I thought their GAAP or non-GAAP numbers more accurately reflected their performance last quarter ... but I do have a lot of optimism about the company going forward.

It's not just new orders -- though they have those, a total of about 10 million in new contracts announced for their ZBV vans and cargo security scanners in just the past couple weeks.

It's the environment, and the leading edge technology, and the wholesale pessimism baked into the stock.

I've written about what the company does in some detail, both before I bought shares and after. I think the new order from the US government for 8 more Z-Backscatter Vans that are enabled for tough operating environments and enhanced with radiation scanning ability (that sounds like Iraq to me), should reassure investors that ASEI's biggest customer still has plenty of need for their products ... and that's just the vans, that doesn't account for the huge demand for their port, cargo, facility and airport security solutions that offer leading edge technology that no one else can provide.

But more than anything else, I can't believe the pricing on these shares. The company has had a long history of poor performance before current management came on board, but Wall Street seems to be looking at that ancient history instead of at their renewed focus on profitability in the past few years, and on their recent performance.

I'm surprised that I was able to buy the most innovative security screening company in the world at a discount to the overall market ... but I'll take it. I picked up my additional shares earlier today at $46.25, and if accounting confusion and non-recurring items cause some more angst after the earnings call tomorrow I'll strongly consider buying some more.

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Security at a reasonable price (ASEI)

I've been on jury duty most of the week and not watching the intraday gyrations of the market, so apologies for not posting -- what with Tuesday's decline and Wednesday's boom I guess I'm right about where I was the last time I wrote.

I continue to be interested in fleshing out some positions at these depressed prices, but I've gotten a little trigger shy -- otherwise, I would have bought more Chico's by now, perhaps more Cemex before it ran back up, or even a little more Imax -- it looks like there must be some rumors on the takeover percolating somewhere to move that one up.

But I did make a purchase this morning, getting a small entry position into American Science and Engineering (ASEI) at $52 (which is also where it closed yesterday). I wrote about this company, which basically focuses on advanced scanning and x-ray technology for security, a few weeks ago when I was wondering if it was finally cheap enough to buy. Today, I think it is.

ASEI sells a variety of products -- their biggest moneymaker right now is the Z-Backscatter Van (ZBV), a mobile x-ray scanning van that can scan the cars parked on the street, or people walking by, or other difficult to scan items. Governments around the world are picking these up, and the US government has been a major customer.

But they also offer other systems and larger scanning platforms. They have gantry-size scanners for cargo containers that can do x-ray scanning as well as pick up radiation; they have a proposed personal scanner for airports that would replace metal detectors with something that can actually see through your clothing (with basic privacy protected) and scanners to inspect packages or luggage.

The company is certainly reliant on government contracts -- the US government is their biggest customer, and part of the reason for the recent decline in the stock price is the fear that the market for the ZBVs has been saturated here at home.

I don't know whether that's the case, but I don't expect it is. With facility and port security increasingly big issues, and border security growing in importance (these scanners can also detect a group of people hiding in a cargo truck, for example), I don't think demand will drop. And the upside could be quite significant -- if ASEI gets a contract to put large numbers of its personal or package scanners in US airports or post offices, for example, the market would be huge.

As you can see from the headlines, security remains a critical issue around the world -- ASEI should be in a pretty good spot to supply some abilities that very few police or security agencies have right now, and I think that's a very good bet.

There is certainly a flip side to this argument -- as of mid-June, when the price was quite near where it is now, just a few dollars higher, there was a large short position in ASEI (20% of the float). I think that's too much pessimism for a company with unique products, in a growing industry, with virtually no debt and a below-average PE ratio. But I'm just one guy, and the short sellers often have better information than I do.

I'll plan to watch this one closely over the next few months and see if I get an opportunity to fill out my position at better prices, or if order flow picks up and a higher price is warranted. Whichever way it moves, the shares I picked up today at $52 seem to be very reasonably priced.

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American Science and Engineering -- Cheap Enough? (ASEI)

I've been keeping American Science and Engineering (ASEI) in the back of my mind for quite some time. I first heard about them last year in a financial newsletter, and have watched with some interest as the stock has fallen precipitously over the past few months. I'm wondering if now is a good time to open a position.

ASEI is a security technology company -- their primary product is the Z-Backscatter Van (ZBV), which uses backscatter (reflective) x-rays in the back of a truck to provide a mobile detection service that can pick out contraband in delivery trucks, explosives in cars, or anything else that is hidden where it oughtn't be. This is patented technology, and there seems to be significant demand -- they've sold about 80 of them to the US government already according to some reports, and they announce new sales overseas with some regularity. Their website has some great examples of the high-quality images their scanners produce, and it takes very little imagination to picture a world where these products are everyday tools of the military, customs, and law enforcement.

The company has recovered well under new management -- there's a good Business Week article on that entitled American Science and Engineering: Its X-Ray Vision Uncovers the Naked Truth -- and is clearly a beneficiary of concerns over port, airport and facility security in the wake of September 11 ... but the fact that they rely largely on government sales of high-cost items (the vans, which are far from their most expensive product, run about a million dollars each) means that their earnings will be extremely lumpy, and that the orgy of post-9/11 spending might make upcoming earnings comparisons appear weak.

I'm starting to think that we're now at a point that these fears of lumpy earnings or declining growth might be presenting us with a solid buy-in point. The shares are running about $53 right now, smack inbetween their lows of last summer and their highs of the winter, before a disappointing quarter dropped the price. A Boston Globe columnist wrote recently that "it's hard to see demand for the company's products diminishing over time," and that argument is pretty compelling for me (the same column also mentioned Akamai, FYI, another big Boston-area tech company with a high-performing stock).

For other information, look to the Fool, which covers this company pretty well, including a nice summary last month that introduced some concerns over competition in their non-backscatter markets and a review of the possible reasons for ASEI's large short position, or check out the piece by former wrestler turned stock commentator JBL over at TheStreet.com if you want a much more optimistic take (his forward earnings estimates are a lot higher than I'd use). The company is not very closely followed by analysts and they don't provide guidance.

ASEI is pretty reliant on their ZBV product at this point, but they also have a lot of initiatives underway that might bring in significantly higher sales. They have a Gemini system for package scanning, a SmartCheck system that could potentially replace airport metal detectors (it shows what's under or in your clothing, and they're implementing algorithms that prevent really "private" parts from showing), a huge Omniview gantry system for scanning cargo containers at ports, and several complementray technologies that can scan even very dense and think items (like cargo containers) to detect radiation simultaneously with a visual x-ray scan. Orders of the big gantries, or a positive TSA evaluation and widespread adoption of the SmartCheck system, could both move the needle significantly.

I don't think I'm a pessimist, but I think port security, battlefield scanning, car bomb detection, package scanning, and person scanning are all growth industries. And the company that can provide those services without crossing the line of interfering too much personal privacy or impeding the flow of goods and services (these scans are fairly quick, and can largely be done in-line with regular processing, like containers being offloaded from a ship or trucks going through checkpoints for big stuff, or normal passenger and baggage screening at airports, and I get the impression that it doesn't introduce a bottleneck).

I'm guessing that international commitment to security screening in general is going to become greater, not smaller. ASEI, while priced for average growth at a PE of 16, looks to me like it should have significant opportunities to grow much its earnings much more quickly than that over a multi-year period ... it's just that quarterly earnings might also drop on occasion thanks to government largesse or delays. I'll let you know if I decide to dip my toe in the water.

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